Nigeria Fails to Meet 2.06m bpd 2025 Budget Target

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Nigeria’s oil production (including crude oil and condensate) dropped to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in December from 1.599 million bpd in November. This reflects a 3.44 per cent decline on a month-on-month basis.

This was revealed in the latest Crude Oil and Condensate data 2025 released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The upstream oil and gas industry regulator said the 1.544 million daily average production figure comprises both crude oil (1,421,960 bopd) and condensate (122,385 bopd).

On a year-on-year basis, the total figure reflects an 8.3 per cent drop when compared with 1.684 million bpd recorded in December 2024.

The data show that the total crude oil and condensate production in December was 47,874,692 barrels, a decline from the 4,971,614 barrels recorded in November.

It noted that the combined crude oil and condensate production recorded a peak of 1.82 million bpd, while the lowest was 1.52 million bpd.

The latest reports, released on January 15, 2026, reveal a consistent struggle to meet both the national budget targets and international quotas. The report specifically noted that the average crude oil production represents 95 per cent of the 1.5 million bpd quota assigned to Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Pinnacle Daily reports that the December output reveals that the government failed to meet the 2.06 million bpd target set in the 2025 budget. The budget was also based on $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,500/$1.

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While the NUPRC report did not explicitly state the cause for this latest oil production dip, industry analysts have attributed it to persisting security challenges around oil facilities (oil theft and vandalism), infrastructural hitches (periodic shutdowns for repairs on pipelines and other facilities and operational disruptions) and declining investment in upstream to discover more blocks for oil extraction.

Experts have expressed concerns that Nigeria’s inability to meet its budget target for oil production in 2025 has created a significant fiscal gap. With December 2025 output closing at 1.544 million bpd (including condensates), the country missed its daily target by over 500,000 barrels.

The shortfall in 2025 forced the government to rely more heavily on domestic and international borrowing to fund its deficit.

Is 2026 Any Brighter?

While the 2025 target was a miss, Wood Mackenzie predicts that Nigeria’s production could exceed two million bpd by the end of 2026. This optimism is based on the Bonga North project coming on stream, the resumption of operations in the long-dormant Ogoni fields, successful execution of the 2025 and 2026 oil licensing rounds, and the aggressive drilling drive by indigenous operators

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Victor EZEJA

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Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.