Economy

United Capital Research (UCR) has predicted that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will drop to 20.83 per cent in August 2025, down from 21.88 per cent in July 2025. The pan-African financial services institution said its forecast is based on a combination of factors, including decreasing prices of major food items, relatively stable energy prices, especially Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, and exchange rate stability (Naira against the U.S. Dollar). On food prices, the firm cited data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that the average prices of most food items, including maize, beans, garri, rice, soybeans and sorghum, dropped in August 2025 compared with July, except for yam. It noted that crude oil and PMS prices remained stable. While the average price of Bonny Light crude oil fell to $70.55 per barrel in August 2025 from $73.17 in July, petrol pump prices fluctuated during the month between ₦915 and ₦865 per litre. “However, these price swings had a limited impact on inflation-driving sectors such as transportation, hospitality, and food,” the analyst stated. READ ALSO: Nigerian Banks’ 2025 Profit to Drop by 19% – Agusto UCR stated that exchange rate stability supported price relief. It noted that despite the naira recording a marginal 0.27 depreciation in August (₦1,534.88/$1 in August against ₦1,530.67/$1 in July), the pass-through effects on consumer prices, however, remained muted, as producers largely absorbed the cost increases. United Capital stated that if its 20.83 per cent forecast falls through, it would mark …