Analysts at CardinalStone project that Nigeria’s average crude oil output will rise to 1.75 million barrels per day (bpd) up from 1.67 million bpd in 2025.
This was contained in their 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook titled “Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains,” released on Tuesday, January 6.
It said the projection is supported by a sustained decline in daily crude losses, now at their lowest level since 2009.
CardinalStone says it expects the oil sector growth to settle at 6.6 per cent in 2026, slightly lower than the 2025 expected growth of 7.1 per cent, “as the supportive base effect fades off.”
The economic research and investment advisory firm expressed optimism that the annual licensing round would boost oil output as it is focused on underdeveloped fields, shallow & deep-water terrains, and natural gas development.
Pinnacle Daily reports that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had, in December, announced the commencement of the 2025 Licensing round, offering 50 oil blocks for bidding by investors, with a target of attracting about $10 billion in new investment and adding two billion barrels to national reserves.
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The analysts at CardinalStone observed that there is significant improvement in investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, supported by the four executive orders signed by President Bola Tinubu between 2024 and 2025 that led to a total of $16.0 billion in new investment commitments over the last two years.
They noted that indigenous oil and gas companies like SEPLAT and ARADEL have shown commitment to aggressively increase their capital expenditure (CAPEX) with the complete acquisitions of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) and some Shell assets (via Renaissance Consortium), which are likely to boost the nation’s oil output.
Data released by the NUPRC show that Nigeria’s daily average production in November was 1,599,054 barrels per day, comprising of both Crude oil (1,436,005 bopd) and condensate (163,049 bopd). The average crude oil production in November was slightly higher than the 1,597.99 recorded in October. The November output is, however, 96 per cent of the OPEC quota (1.5 million bpd).
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On its part, the NUPRC has set a bold target to reach 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production by the end of 2026.
CardinalStone analysts highlight efforts by the Nigerian authorities to boost gas production. They note efforts towards prioritisation of the development of natural gas production, reduction of gas flaring, and increased gas commercialization.
“We expect the improved oil and gas output to support growth in 2026 and in the medium term,” the analysts stated.
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Nigeria’s oil sector remains the primary source of foreign exchange earnings, driving the economy, with both local and multinational companies involved in production.
In the proposed N58.18 trillion budget for 2026, Tinubu’s government proposed an oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day.
Meeting these targets in the proposed budget requires concerted efforts by industry stakeholders and government agencies to curb all impediments to production.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in Mass Communication. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X
