In a significant shift in Nigeria’s energy consumption landscape, Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), also known as diesel, recorded an increase in consumption while the usage of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, saw a notable decline in February 2026.
This is according to the latest Factsheet released by the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on the state of the midstream and downstream sector in February 2026.
The Factsheet reveals a stark divergence in the demand for two major petroleum products in the country.
According to the data, domestic consumption of diesel rose from 19.2 million litres per day in January to 20.3 million litres per day in February reflecting a 5.73 per cent increase. Also, domestic supply of diesel rose from 18.9 million litres per day in January to 24.4 million litres per day in February, representing a 29.1 per cent increase.
However, PMS consumption dropped from 60.2 million litres per day in January to 56.9 million litres per day in February, a 5.48 per cent decline. Also, total domestic supply of PMS fell sharply to 39.6 million litres per day in February, a significant drop of 39 per cent from 64.9 million litres per day in January.
Industry analysts attribute this trend to a combination of pricing dynamics, industrial activity, and evolving consumer behavior in the face of economic pressures.
They also note that the rise was supported by increased production from modular refineries and the evacuation of stored diesel from state-owned facilities.
Dangote Refinery supply to the domestic market decreased to 36.5 million litres per day in February, compared to 40.1 million litres per day in the previous month. PMS supply through imports by oil marketing companies and NNPC dropped significantly from 24.8 million litres per day in December to 3.0 million litres per day in February as the Federal Government, through the regulatory authority, restricts importation to encourage domestic refineries.
State-owned Refineries
The report indicates that state-owned refineries – Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna – remained largely inactive, contributing no petrol to the domestic market as rehabilitation efforts continue. However, some previously refined diesel is still being evacuated from these plants.
It revealed that modular refineries such as the WalterSmith, Edo, and Aradel refineries are playing a growing role, particularly in diesel supply, although their overall daily output remains modest compared to national demand.
Experts point to the stabilization of diesel prices in the international market and the increased reliance on the fuel for power generation by commercial entities.
Unlike petrol, the price of diesel was already deregulated. Following a peak in 2022, global prices have softened. More importantly, the rising cost of PMS for transportation and power has pushed many businesses, from telecommunications companies to manufacturing plants, to lean more heavily on diesel-powered generators to ensure operational continuity.
Price Adjustments
Following the recent surge in crude oil prices in the global market caused by conflict in the Middle East, the Dangote Refinery has adjusted its ex-gantry price for petrol, initially from ₦995 to ₦1,175 per litre. After reducing it by ₦100 to ₦1,075 per litre mid last week, the refinery raised it to ₦1,175 on Friday, as oil prices surged above $120 per barrel mark.
For diesel, the refinery reduced the ex-depot price from ₦1,620 to ₦1,430 per litre. Despite this, retail prices for petrol have remained high in some areas, exceeding ₦1,250 per litre in parts of Lagos.
Import Suspension
Aligning with the Petroleum Industry Act, the government has suspended import licenses for petrol for a second consecutive month, prioritizing local production now that domestic supply is deemed sufficient to meet national demand .
What This Means for Consumers and the Economy
The shift in consumption patterns is having a direct impact on Nigerian households and businesses:
High Cost of Living: The high cost of petrol has forced many commuters and small business owners to reduce their fuel consumption. A civil servant in Lagos, Titilayo Adeyemi, shared that she has had to cut back on driving due to the financial strain.
Business Pressure: Small-scale entrepreneurs who rely on generators due to unreliable electricity are feeling the squeeze. A printing shop owner in Ilasa noted that his daily operating costs have soared, forcing him to raise prices for his customers.
In response to rising energy costs, the Federal Government is accelerating the rollout of 100,000 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) conversion kits. This initiative aims to provide a cheaper alternative fuel for vehicles and help cushion the impact of high petrol and diesel prices.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in Mass Communication. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X
