Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 will be shaped by a mix of global and domestic pressures, according to the Managing Director of Cowry Asset Management Limited, Johnson Chukwu.
Chukwu spoke at the Cowry Quarterly Economic Discourse (QED), which was held virtually on Thursday, December 15.
Delivering a keynote presentation titled “Nigeria in 2026: Will Politics Trump Economic Reforms?”, he said US trade measures against Iran have introduced fresh uncertainty into the global economic environment.
He identified President Donald Trump’s political rhetoric, crude oil prices, China’s economic performance, and foreign portfolio investors’ perception of Nigeria’s sovereign risk in a pre-election year as key external factors expected to influence Nigeria’s economy in 2026.
On the domestic front, Chukwu pointed to tax reform implementation, political pushback against reforms, excessive liquidity injections from the federal government’s 2025 and 2026 budgets, as well as insecurity and broader social disruptions, as major internal risks.
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“Economic predictions in 2026 will have a very short shelf life,” Chukwu stated, noting that Trump had imposed a 25 per cent tariff on any country that continues to trade with Iran.
While Sub-Saharan African countries such as Nigeria have traditionally been less exposed to U.S. trade policies due to low levels of finished-goods exports, Chukwu said the new tariffs signal a shift toward a more politically driven global trade system.
He added that such developments could affect how foreign investors assess Nigeria’s sovereign risk.
Speaking further on domestic issues, Chukwu said tax reforms would remain central to fiscal stability, stressing that successful implementation is critical.
However, he warned that resistance could intensify as elections draw closer, potentially slowing or changing the direction of reforms.
“Political pressure will likely shift the course/direction of reforms,” Chukwu said. “In a VUCA [volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous] pro-max environment, investors need to adopt an active portfolio management strategy.”
Chukwu’s submission is that Nigeria’s ability to manage the interaction between geopolitical tensions, reform efforts and social conditions will play a key role in determining economic stability and the country’s appeal to foreign investors in 2026.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X
