Renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Ayo Teriba, has said the Federal Government can generate more revenue by optimising its assets rather than selling them.
He said the government could unlock value from assets such as real estate, oil and gas, and the energy sector by listing them on the capital market to attract foreign direct investment and boost revenue generation.
Teriba made the remarks recently on the ARISE TV programme while discussing issues related to budget benchmarks, taxation, inflation, exchange rates, and other macroeconomic indicators.
He cited Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia as examples of countries that have attracted significant foreign direct investment by unlocking the value of their assets.
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He explained that the Federal Government required about ₦24 trillion but could only raise ₦10 trillion; the only sustainable way to bridge the gap to ₦24 trillion—or even ₦50 trillion—was through investment.
“What I am advocating is that we should earn money from our assets, not sell them,” Teriba said.
He noted that although Aramco is a listed company, the Saudi Arabian government retains ownership, stressing that Nigeria should adopt a similar approach.
“Don’t sell the assets; securitise them,” he said. “If you have real estate, you can generate revenue from it. You shouldn’t be overtaxing people or forgiving ₦4 trillion to ₦5 trillion in NNPC debts.”
The economist also outlined key areas Nigeria should prioritise in its economic planning for the new year.
Likened the 2026 outlook to the 2006 growth
Teriba said he expects Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 to be stronger than what the government has projected.
He noted that multilateral institutions have forecast a better growth outlook for Nigeria than for the global economy, which is expected to slow slightly.
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Drawing a comparison with two decades ago, Teriba said 2026 could mirror the conditions of 2006.
“You should expect that 2026 is going to be similar to 2006,” he said.
He recalled that in 2006 the stock market surged fivefold, the naira strengthened, inflation stabilised and economic growth accelerated, before the momentum was disrupted by the global financial crisis of 2008–2009.
“So I’m saying 2026 is going to be a repeat of 2006. Expect broad tranquillity and expansion on all fronts,” Teriba projected.
According to him, 2006 was largely driven by favourable global conditions, as Nigeria benefited from a commodity supercycle marked by soaring global prices.
“That was the peak of the commodity supercycle before the crisis,” he said.
However, Teriba stressed that the anticipated gains in 2026 would not be driven by luck.
“This one is policy-induced,” he said, adding that the biggest gains so far have come from improved exchange-rate stability and the disinflationary trend observed throughout 2025.
Projects single-digit inflation from January 2026
Teriba reiterated his expectation that headline inflation would fall to single digits by January, noting that it stood at 14.4% in November 2025.
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“I expect the next figure to be around 12 per cent, and by January—which will be announced in February—we should be in single digits,” he said.
“If we hit single digits at the beginning of the year, we should remain in single digits,” Teriba added.
Urges CBN to start disclosing net reserves
Teriba said the government’s projections for exchange and inflation rates were far more conservative than what current fundamentals suggest.
He noted that Nigeria ended 2025 with an exchange rate of below ₦1,500 to the dollar, adding that if macroeconomic stability is sustained, net foreign reserves should continue to grow.
“I think the Central Bank of Nigeria should stop projecting gross reserves and be more transparent, because what truly matters is net reserves,” he said.
“If net reserves stood at about $29 billion in November 2025, compared with roughly $4 billion two years earlier, then the government has increased net reserves about sevenfold.”
According to him, a rise in net reserves from $29 billion to about $50 billion by year-end could drive further appreciation of the naira.
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“If net reserves rise to $50 billion, the exchange rate could fall to ₦1,000 or even below,” Teriba said.
Recalling earlier projections, he noted, “Two years ago, we projected an exchange rate of ₦800, but we ended up at ₦1,600. Now that we are still projecting ₦1,500 or ₦1,400, we may actually end up at ₦800 if the current trajectory is sustained.”
Cast doubt on the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme initiative
The renowned economist expressed doubts that the programme would achieve its stated objectives.
In his New Year message, President Bola Tinubu had hinted at the initiative, which he said was aimed at bringing at least 10 million Nigerians into productive economic activity by empowering about 1,000 people in each of the 8,809 wards nationwide.
Commenting on the plan, Teriba recalled that a similar initiative under a previous administration—which projected the creation of 1,000 jobs in each of the 774 local government areas—failed to meet its targets.
According to him, the Tinubu administration should have been more cautious in making such commitments.
“President Tinubu is coming in two years. I’m not saying this to criticise; I’m saying this to bring us back to reality,” Teriba said.
He noted that the government had yet to fully fund capital expenditures for 2024 and had not begun implementation for 2025, warning that ambitious promises could prove unrealistic without clear funding sources.
“He hasn’t funded the capital votes for 2024; he hasn’t started for 2025, yet there are sweeping promises.
“You should disregard such projections unless the government can raise the ₦40 trillion revenue it hopes to generate for 2025,” he said.
Teriba stressed that governments should avoid making capital-budget commitments without identifying credible funding sources, noting that meaningful delivery would require substantial inflows, particularly through foreign direct investment.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X
