2027 Elections: Why Millions of Eligible Nigerians May Not Vote

Nigeria has more adults, more registered voters and better election technology than at any other time in its democratic history. Yet one problem continues to grow quietly with every election cycle: millions of Nigerians no longer believe their votes matter.

Ahead of the 2027 general election, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has registered a cumulative 10,399,288 new prospective voters across the three phases of the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise.

The exercise, initially scheduled to end on July 10, was extended by two weeks to July 26, 2026, after the commission cited the need to accommodate more prospective voters.

Yet beneath the growing voter register lies a deeper crisis.

According to Worldometer’s analysis of the latest United Nations data, Nigeria’s population has risen to an estimated 242.4 million in 2026, with between 123 million and 126 million citizens now aged 18 years and above—the largest voting-age population in the country’s history.

Break Down of Nigeria’s New Voter Register

Figures released by INEC on Wednesday show that the third phase, which ended on July 26, 2026, comprised 1,170,134 online registrations and 2,697,863 physical registrations, bringing the year-long exercise to a close.

If all the registrations are validated, Nigeria’s voter register could increase from 93,469,008 used for the 2023 general election to about 103.9 million ahead of the 2027 polls.

However, INEC said the final figure would be lower after data clean-up to remove duplicate registrations, deceased voters and other invalid entries.

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The CVR exercise began on August 18, 2025, with the first phase recording 2,782,587 registrations. The second phase, held between January 5 and April 17, 2026, added 3,748,704 registrants, while the third phase contributed 3,867,997, giving a cumulative total of 10.39 million registrations.

Women accounted for 2,037,589 (52.68%) of registrants in the third phase, while men recorded 1,830,408 (47.32%). Young people aged 18 to 34 years dominated the exercise with 2,602,960 registrations (67.29%).

Students formed the largest occupational group with 892,946 registrations, followed by business persons (810,452), farmers and fishers (649,358) and housewives (640,569).

INEC also registered 41,092 persons with disabilities, including persons with albinism, blindness, deafness and other disabilities.

State-by-state figures showed Kano recorded the highest number of registrations (330,906), followed by Lagos (181,254), Delta (166,895) and Edo (156,150). Ekiti recorded the lowest figure with 2,276 registrations, while no registration took place in Osun State because of the forthcoming governorship election, in line with the Electoral Act.

A Registration Exercise Marked by Challenges

While INEC introduced new innovations during the latest CVR exercise, including an online self-service registration portal that allowed first-time voters to begin the registration process remotely, the exercise was not without difficulties.

Pinnacle Daily observed persistent technical glitches on the CVR portal, including delays in generating verification codes for prospective registrants.

The commission’s CVR mobile application on the Google Play Store also attracted numerous negative reviews from users who reported difficulties downloading or using the app, while others said they could only complete the process through a web browser.

Beyond technical challenges, the exercise was repeatedly disrupted by controversies.

Apart from temporary suspensions to accommodate off-cycle elections, INEC extended registration deadlines because of operational challenges and later faced widespread criticism over its proposed nationwide voter revalidation exercise.

The commission explained that the proposed exercise was intended to remove deceased voters, eliminate duplicate registrations and update voter records. However, following public backlash, it suspended the physical rollout while continuing internal preparations.

The PVC collection process also generated controversy.

In Anambra State, a commotion erupted at an INEC office in Onitsha South Local Government Area after officials were accused of demanding ₦2,000 from applicants to process voter registration and issue Permanent Voter Cards.

Although the allegation, which surfaced in a viral video, generated widespread public reaction, INEC maintained that voter registration and PVC collection remain free of charge and urged Nigerians to report any cases of extortion.

Decline in Voter Participation Affects Nigeria’s Elections.

Despite the increase in newly registered voters, voter turnout has continued to decline with every election cycle.

Rather than signalling renewed democratic enthusiasm, the figures have revived an uncomfortable question that has shadowed Nigeria’s elections for nearly two decades:

Why are millions of eligible Nigerians choosing not to participate?

The question has become even more urgent following the 2023 general election, which produced the lowest voter turnout since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999.

Although 93,469,008 million Nigerians registered to vote and 87.2 million collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), only 24.9 million people (26.72 per cent of registered voters) eventually cast their ballots in the presidential election.

The implication was striking. President Bola Tinubu won the election with 8.79 million votes—almost 16 million fewer votes than were secured by the winner of the 2007 presidential election, despite Nigeria’s significantly larger population and voter register.

INEC’s own records show a steady decline in voter turnout over the years.

Participation fell from 57.54 per cent in 2007 to 53.68 per cent in 2011, dropped further to 43.65 per cent in 2015, declined to 34.75 per cent in 2019, before reaching 26.72 per cent in 2023.

The trend contrasts sharply with Nigeria’s early democratic years. Following the return to civilian rule in 1999, voter participation exceeded 50 per cent and peaked at almost 70 per cent during the 2003 elections.

Today, despite a larger population, improved voter registration technology and wider access to electoral information, fewer Nigerians are willing to vote.

Beyond Registration Lies a Crisis of Confidence

Available research suggests that the problem extends beyond voter registration.

Studies by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and SEAHI Publications identify deep public distrust, election-related violence, voter suppression, technological failures, weaknesses in the voter register and gender exclusion as major barriers to electoral participation.

Former President Goodluck Jonathan, who has observed elections across Africa and Asia since leaving office, recently described Nigeria as having one of the lowest voter turnouts among the countries where he has monitored elections.

“We have the worst voter apathy,” Jonathan said, urging INEC to investigate the causes and urgently reverse the trend before the 2027 general election.

That warning is shared by election stakeholders.

Former INEC spokesman Rotimi Oyakanmi blamed voter apathy partly on provisions of the Electoral Act that restrict voters to their registered polling units, effectively disenfranchising many Nigerians working outside their places of registration on election day.

He also cited unfulfilled campaign promises and the spread of misinformation as reasons many citizens have become disillusioned with elections.

Similarly, Convener of the Movement for Credible Elections (MCE), Wale Okunniyi, warned that the defining question ahead of the 2027 elections may not be which political party wins power, but whether enough Nigerians still believe the ballot remains an effective instrument for democratic change.

The President of the Nigeria Youths in Politics, Blessing Oyefeso, identified voter apathy among young Nigerians as a major threat to the country’s democracy, attributing it to widespread distrust in the electoral system and the belief that votes do not count. He stressed that rebuilding confidence in the electoral process is essential to increasing youth participation and mobilising young Nigerians ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Here is the edited text for the second phase of your special report. The edit corrects typos, smooths transitions, fixes the cut-off at the end, and maintains a traditional, high-quality journalistic style.

Why Confidence Has Worn Thin

A senior lawyer, Barr. Monday Adjeh, attributed the growing voter apathy ahead of the 2027 general election to a long-standing loss of public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). He noted that repeated failures to fulfil electoral promises have severely weakened citizens’ trust.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Pinnacle Daily, Adjeh commended INEC for extending the online voter registration deadline but argued that extensions alone cannot fix the core problem.

“I must commend INEC for extending the time for online registration because the intention is to encourage wider participation,” Adjeh said. “However, the fundamental issue is that the confidence of the citizens is no longer there.”

He explained that public confidence relies on consistency, noting that institutions lose credibility when they repeatedly fail to deliver.

“If you look at the trajectory of INEC, every election cycle comes with fresh promises,” he said. “But once the process begins, Nigerians witness actions that contradict those assurances. Looking at the commission’s antecedents, many citizens have concluded that it has not lived up to expectations, and that is why voter apathy continues to grow,” he said.

Adjeh also pointed out that INEC’s voter registration exercise remains largely inaccessible to Nigerians living outside major urban centres. While registration activities are highly visible in cities, remote rural communities often see no registration officials at all.

“Most of the extensions announced by INEC only benefit those in urban centres,” Adjeh argued. “If you visit many villages and remote communities, you will cost-ly find registration officials on the ground. That is not the fault of citizens who want to register; it is a failure of the system.”

He urged the commission to fix its operational shortcomings, particularly the glitches on its online registration platform, rather than forcing eligible voters to bear the consequences of systemic deficiencies.

The senior lawyer also faulted INEC’s current voter education strategy, stating that the commission has abandoned the grassroots mobilisation that defined previous electoral cycles. Adjeh recalled earlier periods when electoral officials and political parties routinely visited rural communities with public address systems to educate citizens. He argued that relying heavily on social media excludes millions of rural Nigerians who lack digital access.

“My great-grandmother in the village is not on social media, yet she has the constitutional right to vote,” Adjeh said. “Voter education cannot be limited to online platforms while neglecting those in remote communities.”

He similarly criticised the National Orientation Agency (NOA), stating it has failed to sufficiently mobilise citizens and promote civic responsibility ahead of the 2027 polls.

Addressing the deep distrust among youth and eligible voters, Adjeh stressed that negative perceptions of how elections are run have deeply undermined confidence.

He noted that citizens readily accept election outcomes when the playing field is even but withdraw when the umpire appears compromised.

“If elections are conducted freely and fairly, people will accept defeat because they know the process was transparent,” Adjeh noted. ” But when the electoral umpire is perceived as favouring one side, confidence disappears.”

He further argued that delays in implementing certain court decisions, while acting swiftly on others, have reinforced public suspicion regarding INEC’s independence.

High Costs and Monetised Politics

Pinnacle Daily interviewed Onimisi Abdullahi Ibrahim, an eligible voter, and he said he has since lost trust in the election since the 2011 general election.

He explained that years of unfulfilled expectations and rigged confidence have discouraged him from participating in future elections.

He believes votes no longer determine outcomes and that government policies ignore public input.

“To be honest with you, I have long lost interest in voting. As far back as 2011, our votes no longer count. The entire electoral process no longer inspires confidence. Even when the government formulates policies, citizens are not carried along. Regardless of the effort people make to ensure their votes count, the outcome always seems disappointing,” Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim maintained that restoring public trust requires a sincere national reorientation and comprehensive electoral reforms.

Looking ahead to the 2027 general election, Ibrahim expressed deep doubts that the process would be credible without a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s political culture.

“Unless there is a major change in our orientation, our mindset, and the way elections are conducted, I do not see things improving before the next election. We can only hope for a better future,” he said.

Another eligible voter, Rashidat Kazim, agreed that vote buying has completely eroded public confidence in Nigeria’s democracy, noting that the open trading of votes at polling units makes the entire democratic process feel predetermined and transactional.

A Crisis of Governance and Judicialised Elections

A professor of political science at Bayero University, Kano, Kamilu Sani Fage, expressed deep scepticism that the 2027 general election will see any significant reversal in voter apathy.

He warned that years of poor governance and growing public distrust have fundamentally alienated many Nigerians from the electoral process.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Pinnacle Daily, Professor Fage stated that he does not expect voter turnout to improve substantially, arguing that citizens have become disillusioned with leadership at all tiers of government.

“I do not expect significant improvement; many Nigerians have become disillusioned with the performance of governments at different levels. There is now a growing gap between political leaders and the people. Citizens no longer believe government is addressing their needs and aspirations, and that is one of the major causes of voter apathy,” he said.

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Prof. Fage described the situation as a “voters’ revolt. In political science, he explained, this phenomenon manifests in two ways: some citizens withdraw completely from the process because they have lost hope, while others participate actively with the sole purpose of voting out an unpopular government. In Nigeria’s case, however, many citizens have been discouraged from participating entirely due to the belief that corruption, systemic manipulation, and structural irregularities completely undermine the value of their votes,” he explained.

Prof. Fage also pointed to the increasing role of the judiciary in determining election outcomes as a critical factor fuelling apathy.

He noted that many Nigerians now believe elections are ultimately decided through courtroom litigation rather than at the polling unit, a perception that heavily discourages civic participation.

Furthermore, he blamed worsening economic and social conditions for the decline in public interest, citing high inflation, widespread poverty, insecurity, illiteracy, low political awareness, and deteriorating living standards as major drivers of this civic withdrawal.

To rebuild public confidence, Prof. Fage maintained that the responsibility rests heavily on political leaders, emphasising that there is no substitute for good governance.

“Governments must perform and deliver the dividends of democracy if they want citizens to participate actively in the electoral process,” he insisted.

He also called for stricter adherence to the rule of law as a fundamental pillar of democracy.

“Unfortunately, in Nigeria, we often practise what I call the ‘rule of opportunity’ rather than the rule of law. Every Nigerian, regardless of status, should be subject to the law. There should be no sacred cows, and there must be consequences for violating the law,” he said.

Prof. Fage urged the government to invest heavily in political mobilisation and civic education to foster a stronger sense of national identity. Citizens, he concluded, are far more likely to participate in elections when they believe they have a genuine stake in the country and are convinced that their votes actually matter.

The Legal Path to Reclaiming the Ballot

While academic and public opinions reflect a bleak outlook for 2027, recent judicial developments offer a glimmer of structural hope.

A Federal High Court ruling has strengthened the role of ordinary citizens in protecting Nigeria’s electoral process by affirming that every eligible voter has the legal standing to challenge INEC over actions affecting election integrity.

In the judgement, the court praised the plaintiff, Ephraim Okoye, for actively monitoring vote collation. The ruling urged greater civic vigilance, encouraging Nigerians, particularly the youth, to register, collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), vote, monitor the collation process, and directly challenge fraudulent results through the legal system.

Ultimately, as Professor Fagge noted, citizens will only return to the ballot box when they believe they have a tangible stake in the nation and are convinced that their voices genuinely matter.

To reverse decades of growing apathy before the 2027 general election, Nigeria’s political leadership must prioritise institutional transparency, strict adherence to the rule of law, and the undeniable delivery of good governance. Without these reforms, the growing gap between the electoral register and the actual voter turnout will only continue to widen.

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Rafiyat SADIQ

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Rafiyat Sadiq is a political, justice, and human rights reporter with Pinnacle Daily, known for fearless reporting and impactful storytelling. At Pinnacle Daily, she brings clarity and depth to issues shaping governance, democracy, and the protection of citizens’ rights.

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