Nigeria’s petrol and diesel supply declined sharply in September 2026, even as domestic consumption of both products increased, raising fresh concerns over fuel availability and the country’s ability to sustain adequate petroleum product supply.
According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), daily petrol supply to the market fell by 23 per cent to 38.7 million litres in September from 50.5 million litres recorded in August. Diesel supply dropped by 40 per cent to 8.7 million litres per day from 14.5 million litres per day.
The decline came against the backdrop of rising demand, with petrol consumption increasing by seven per cent to 44.4 million litres daily, while diesel consumption rose by one per cent to 14.5 million litres per day.
The figures indicate that Nigeria received significantly lower volumes of the two major petroleum products in September despite increased domestic demand, with petrol receipts falling by 5.7 million below the 50 million litres daily estimated consumption.
Petrol imports and domestic supplies decline
A breakdown of the petrol figures showed that domestic refinery deliveries fell by 21 per cent, from 35.9 million litres per day in August to 28.5 million litres in September.
Similarly, imported petrol receipts dropped by 30 per cent, from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres daily.
Consequently, domestic refineries accounted for approximately 74 per cent of total petrol receipts during the month, while imports contributed the remaining 26 per cent.
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The regulator’s data also showed that petrol stock cover stood at 23.9 days in September, an improvement from 22.9 days in August but still below the 30-day benchmark.
The development suggests that the growing contribution of domestic refining has yet to guarantee sufficient petrol supply to meet national demand, particularly as imported volumes continue to fluctuate.
Diesel supply hits 13-month low
The situation was more pronounced in the diesel market, where daily receipts fell to 8.7 million litres in September, representing a 40 per cent decline from 14.5 million litres recorded in August.
The September figure was the lowest diesel supply recorded in 13 months.
According to the report, domestic diesel deliveries declined by 39 per cent to 8.1 million litres daily, while imports by oil marketing companies fell by 54 per cent to 0.6 million litres (approximately 600,000 litres) per day.
The decline occurred despite diesel consumption increasing by one per cent to 14.5 million litres daily, exceeding the regulator’s demand benchmark of 14 million litres.
This means that daily diesel receipts covered only about 60 per cent of estimated consumption during the month.
However, unlike petrol, diesel maintained a relatively comfortable stock position, with inventory sufficient for 49.7 days, above the regulatory 30-day benchmark.
Dangote refinery increases output but exports rise
The decline in domestic petroleum product receipts occurred despite the strong operational performance of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery during the review period.
The refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 105.98 per cent of its installed 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity in September.
It produced an average of 47.22 million litres of petrol daily, compared with 41.94 million litres recorded in August.
However, domestic petrol deliveries from the refinery declined to 28.5 million litres daily, while exports increased to 15.47 million litres per day.
Its diesel production also averaged 24.32 million litres daily, with 8.14 million litres supplied to the domestic market and 15.91 million litres exported.
The figures indicate that increased refinery output did not translate into higher domestic deliveries of petrol and diesel during the month, as significant volumes were allocated to exports.
The NMDPRA Fact Sheet also indicates that the country’s state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna were also not producing during the period, while some modular refineries operated below capacity because of feedstock challenges and maintenance activities.
The development highlights the challenges confronting Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector as the country seeks to balance growing domestic refining capacity with the need to guarantee adequate supplies for local consumers.
Although the Dangote refinery has significantly increased local production and reduced reliance on imported petroleum products, the September figures underscore the importance of ensuring that domestic market deliveries keep pace with consumption.
For consumers and businesses, sustained declines in petrol and diesel availability could further compound transportation, logistics, manufacturing and electricity-generation costs, particularly for businesses and households that depend on petrol and diesel-powered generators.
The latest figures raise questions about the sustainability of domestic petroleum product supply and the need for stronger coordination between local refiners, importers and regulators to ensure adequate market availability.
Industry stakeholders and analysts have continued to call for increased allocation of crude oil feedstock to domestic refineries to further boost local refining as part of efforts achieve energy security.
The NMDPRA report show that crude oil supply to refineries fell by 12.2 per cent from 21.10 million barrels in August to 18.53 million barrels in September. Supply of crude by domestic producers to local refineries dropped from 17.05 million barrels to 15.97 million barrels in September.
Victor Ezeja is a Nigerian journalist skilled in producing insightful news analyses, feature stories, and interviews that simplify complex issues and drive informed public discourse. His work combines rigorous research, balanced reporting, and compelling storytelling to highlight developments shaping industries and society. Victor, who holds a Master's Degree in Mass Communication, specializes in energy, aviation, business, and economic reporting. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X