Nigeria loses an estimated $15 billion every year to oil theft and pipeline vandalism, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda beyond 2027, a study by Professor Usman Muhammed of Kaduna State University has revealed.
Speaking at the 1st Citizens Engagement Conference (North-West Edition) in Kaduna, themed “The Positive Impact of Oil and Gas Reforms by President Bola Tinubu,” Professor Muhammed said Nigeria’s oil and gas sector remains the backbone of the economy, but poor governance, policy inconsistency, and infrastructure decay continue to limit its potential.
Despite 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 209 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, the country struggles with declining productivity and massive fiscal leakages. Between 2019 and 2024, Nigeria’s crude oil output averaged 1.4–1.67 million barrels per day, below its OPEC quota of 1.8 million barrels, while inflation and unemployment rose above 22% and 33%, respectively.
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Although the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 introduced reforms, including the establishment of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Professor Muhammed said enforcement remains weak. He noted a strong correlation between oil production and GDP growth, with regulatory quality and investment inflows accounting for over 81% of sector GDP variance.
Comparative data showed Nigeria lags behind peers in regulatory efficiency, scoring 63/100 versus Norway’s 92 and the United States’ 90, reflecting weak coordination and poor technology adoption.
“The twin problems of oil theft and pipeline vandalism continue to undermine sector growth,” Professor Muhammed warned. He recommended digital monitoring of oil production, pipeline rehabilitation with anti-theft technologies, and increased R&D investment, alongside promotion of local content and gas-based industrial hubs.
Mallam Nasir AbdulQuadri, Co-convener of the conference, urged the government to allow private investors to run refineries while focusing on regulation, citing the Dangote Refinery’s 650,000 barrels per day output as evidence of private-sector efficiency.
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He emphasized that deregulation reduces corruption and promotes transparency.
Participants agreed that only policy stability, transparency, and private-sector participation can unlock Nigeria’s oil and gas potential. Professor Muhammed concluded that sustainable growth beyond 2027 depends on institutionalizing regulatory excellence, diversifying the economy, and strengthening public accountability.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
