The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has stated that with steady progress made in combating the menace of crude oil theft, the country can now produce above two million barrels per day (bpd).
The commission refuted a media report that said the country lost about N8.41 trillion worth of crude oil in four years through theft.
The Commission instead claimed that the country recorded a 90 per cent drop in crude oil losses within the period.
A media report said data released by the NUPRC revealed that Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels of crude in 2021, 20.9 million barrels in 2022, 4.3 million barrels in 2023, 4.1 million barrels in 2024, and 2.04 million barrels between January and July 2025. The report arrived at the N8.41 trillion by using Statista’s average Brent crude prices in the years within the period of the review to determine the value of the lost crude. It arrived at a total of 5.61 billion dollars, equivalent to 8.41 trillion naira at the current exchange rate of about 1,500 naira per dollar.
It noted that if it was realised, the money could have been deployed into funding healthcare, education and critical infrastructure for development.
READ ALSO: Oil Sector Drives Nigeria’s GDP Growth Surge
Reacting to the media report, the NUPRC in a statement on Wednesday said the data it released earlier on crude oil loss between 2021 and July 2025 was misinterpreted.
The upstream regulator explained that the data it released in the spirit of transparency and in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021, revealed that crude oil losses have been on the downward trend in the past four years. It explained that collaborative efforts between the NUPRC, the Office of the National Security Adviser, the military and industry operators led to a drastic drop from a staggering loss of 102,900 bpd in 2021 to 9,600 bpd as of September 2025, representing over 90 per cent reduction in losses.
READ ALSO: NUPRC Falls Short of Revenue Target in August despite Improved Crude Output
“The report in question was based on a misinterpretation of crude loss statistics between 2021 and July 2025 which had been released by the NUPRC in the spirit of transparency and in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021,” NUPRC stated.
“Recall that the commission had revealed on September 11, 2025 that daily crude oil losses had dropped to 9,600 barrels per day, the lowest since 2009 which was reported widely and accurately. The NUPRC was vindicated again when the latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.23% largely on the back of an increased oil output and two other sectors an-acknowledgement of the steady progress made by the industry to combat the menace of crude oil theft.”
The commission also faulted the methodology adopted by the Newspaper in the report, particularly, using an exchange rate of N1,500/$1 ca for determining the worth of the actual crude loss from 2021 to 2025. It stated that “Nigeria’s exchange rate was less than N430 on the official market and barely N600/$1 on average between 2021 (when most of the crude theft occurred) and in mid-2023.
“The N8.41 trillion is therefore inaccurate. Attempting to situate it within the current 2025 federal budget is flawed,” it added.
READ ALSO: Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector Attracts $18bn Investments in 2025 – NUPRC
NUPRC further stated that Nigeria has been meeting its OPEC quota due to the Commission’s initiatives and working collaboratively with industry stakeholders to sustain and grow productions. Such initiatives, according to the Commission include: “the project 1 million barrels, implementation of the metering audit, restoration of shut-in strings and increased rig counts, facility uptime, creation of alternative crude evacuation mechanism etc.
“Furthermore, Nigeria now has the technical capacity to produce above two million barrels daily. The Commission is galvanizing Industry stakeholders – Operators, service providers (local and international), rig owners, off-takers, and financiers – in order to fully unlock the potential, riding on the improved operating environment and social inclusion in operating areas.”
It urged the media to seek clarifications whenever the need arises.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in Mass Communication. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X
