In a historic shift for Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has overtaken importers to become the country’s dominant supplier of petrol.
In January, the refinery supplied nearly 62 per cent of Nigeria’s Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, significantly reducing the nation’s long-standing reliance on imported fuel.
The Fact Sheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that the total average daily supply of petrol in Nigeria for January 2026 was 64.9 million litres. Out of this, the $20 billion refinery located in the Lekki area of Lagos, supplied 40.1 million litres of petrol daily, representing 61.78 per cent of the total daily supply of petrol to the domestic market. The January figure reflects a 25 per cent increase from 32 million litres per day recorded in December by the refinery, according to the NMDPRA report.
Oil Marketing Companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) imported 24.8 million litres per day in January, making up the remaining 38.22 per cent.
This marks a 41.23 per cent decline in daily imports compared to 42.2 million litres per day in December 2025. This also marks the first time in over a decade that domestic production has exceeded imports.
Industry analysts attribute the surge in domestic supply to the ramp-up in operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Recently, Dangote Refinery announced that it has officially hit its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), becoming the world’s largest single-train facility after optimizing its key processing units.
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This surge has not only stabilized national supply but also triggered a strategic price reduction as the refinery also announced a N25 cut in its gantry price of petrol from N799 to N774 per litre, signaling a new era of market competition and reduced reliance on foreign-sourced energy.
Transition from Import dependence
The NMDPRA data reveal a volatile but ultimately transformative year for Nigeria’s petrol supply. Throughout most of 2025, imports filled the supply gap, peaking at 52.1 million litres per day in November 2025, while domestic output from Dangote lagged at just 19.5 million litres per day.
After rising to 24.8 million litres per day in February 2025, domestic supply from DRP dropped and remained below 20 million litres per day in subsequent months. The trend began to shift in December 2025 when it jumped to 32 million litres per day from 19.5 million litres in November, setting the stage for January’s historic breakthrough.
Future Supply Potential
Managing Director/CEO of the Dangote Refinery, David Bird, recently stated that the facility is now positioned to supply up to 75 million litres of petrol daily to the domestic market, suggesting further room for growth.
Impacts of the growing dominance of local refining
The growing dominance of local refining is expected to have positive impacts on the country’s economy and energy security.
The NMDPRA Fact Sheet showed that the domestic supply of petrol dropped by 15.1 per cent to 63 million litres per day in January from 74.2 million litres per day recorded in December. Also, the total petrol consumption declined by 5.5 per cent to 60.2 million litres per day in January from 63.7 million litres in December.
Supply Stability
PMS stock sufficiency rose to 33 days in January from 29.2 days in December, reflecting improved availability, significantly reducing chances of fuel scarcity and long queues at filling stations that had been the case in the past. The refinery’s ability to scale up to 75 million litres per day provides a massive strategic buffer against international supply chain disruptions. Increased local production, according to experts, shields the domestic market from global price volatility and supply disruptions.
Foreign Exchange Relief
By meeting two-thirds of the national demand for petrol, the refinery has significantly reduced the pressure that comes with demand for dollars to import petroleum products. Analysts note that the naira is strengthening (trading around N1,348/$1 this month) as oil marketers no longer need to scramble for FX to fund massive import cargoes. This they say, could save the country billions of dollars annually.
Billionaire investor Femi Otedola recently expressed optimism that with the increasing dominance of local refining championed by the Dangote Refinery, the Naira could trade below N1,000/$1 by year-end.
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Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.
