Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell slightly to 15.1 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Monday, the agency said inflation declined by 0.05 percentage points compared to December.
On a year-on-year basis, inflation dropped sharply by 12.51 percentage points from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.
The latest figures come ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria scheduled for February 23 and 24, 2026.
Food inflation, which makes up the largest part of household spending, dropped significantly. Year-on-year, food inflation fell to 8.89 per cent in January 2026 from 29.63 per cent in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined to 6.02 per cent from 0.36 per cent in December 2025.
The NBS linked the drop to lower prices of items such as water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers and cowpeas.
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Core inflation, which excludes agricultural produce and energy, stood at 17.72 per cent in January 2026, down from 25.27 per cent in January 2025.
Urban inflation slowed to 15.36 per cent year-on-year from 29.45 per cent a year earlier, while rural inflation dropped to 14.44 per cent from 25.04 per cent.
Disinflation is real
Commenting on the figures, Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), described the trend as significant.
He noted that the headline inflation declined to 15.10 per cent year-on-year, compared with 27.61 per cent in January 2025 and 15.15% in December 2025.
He said month-on-month inflation turned negative at −2.88 per cent, indicating an actual easing in the general price level relative to December 2025.
“This development represents an important macroeconomic shift with implications for household welfare, agricultural income sustainability, monetary policy direction, and private-sector investment strategy,” Yusuf said.
On the broader trend, he added, “Taken together, these indicators suggest the emergence of real disinflation rather than temporary price volatility,” he said.
Impact on households, farmers
Yusuf noted that lower food prices would improve purchasing power, reduce poverty pressures and support demand for goods and services.
However, he warned that falling food prices could hurt farmers’ incomes and rural livelihoods if sustained.
“Government should deploy targeted measures to protect farm incomes while sustaining food affordability, including productivity support, minimum guaranteed prices for selected crops, strategic reserves, and expanded agro-processing capacity to absorb surplus output,” Yusuf, a renowned economist, said.
Call for policy balance
He stressed that while the trend supports economic stability, policymakers must strike a balance.
“Nigeria’s January 2026 inflation outcomes signal a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilisation, driven primarily by declining food prices and supported by easing core inflation. The development is positive for household welfare, consumption recovery, and investment confidence, but presents downside risks for farm incomes and rural economic sustainability.
“The central policy priority is therefore to consolidate disinflation while protecting agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. Achieving this balance will be critical to transforming current price moderation into durable stability, inclusive growth, and improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy,” Yusuf added.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X
