The Nigerian government can unlock a $74 billion livestock industry if it abandons failed state-led models like Ajaokuta and adopts a private sector-driven “catalyst model”, Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics, Dele Kelvin Oye, has said.
Speaking at the 2026 Vanguard Newspaper Annual Economic Conference on Wednesday, Oye warned that Nigeria risks repeating past failures if the government tries to directly run the newly created Ministry of Livestock Development.
He said the sector, currently valued at about $32 billion, has the potential to more than double by 2035, but only if the government steps back from business operations.
Reflecting on past industrial failures, Oye said Nigeria has a long history of state-led projects collapsing under poor management.
“The disasters of Ajaokuta, Ikot Abasi, the refineries, Nigeria Airways, and NITEL are not accidents of fate. They are the predictable consequences of violating a fundamental law of institutional economics: Governments regulate; markets operate. When governments try to operate, they fail,” he said.
He noted that while recent reforms have stabilised the economy, “macroeconomic stability without inclusive growth is a hollow victory”, noting that millions of Nigerians still live in poverty.
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He described the livestock sector as largely underdeveloped, driven by subsistence practices with little value addition, despite Nigeria having the largest cattle population in West Africa.
This, he said, explains why the country still spends over $1.5 billion annually importing dairy products.
A major concern for Oye is the structure of Nigeria’s financial system, which he said discourages real sector investment.
“Our banks are declaring record profits—not by funding agriculture, not by financing manufacturing, not by supporting the livestock sector—but by purchasing Treasury bills and government bonds,” Oye said.
According to him, banks prefer risk-free government lending, leaving farmers and producers without access to affordable credit.
“They are lending to the government, not to the people,” he added, warning that the long-term impact on the economy is damaging.
To address this, Oye proposed what he called the “Catalyst Model”, where the government focuses only on providing infrastructure, regulation, and credit support, while private investors handle operations.
“The private sector cannot be government, and government cannot be the private sector,” he said, stressing that roles must be clearly defined to avoid repeating past mistakes.
He also called for policy changes to push banks toward lending to the real sector, including limiting their investment in government securities.
He criticised the proposed ₦7.14 billion capital budget for the livestock ministry as too small to drive meaningful change, describing it as “aspirational rather than operational”.
Drawing lessons from countries like Uruguay and New Zealand, Oye urged the Nigerian government to adopt modern livestock systems such as cattle tracking and private ranching.
He recommended handing over the country’s 400 grazing reserves to private firms under long-term leases to boost productivity and reduce conflict.
Oye said the livestock sector could become a major driver of jobs, exports, and rural development if properly managed.
“The livestock industry can be our next economic frontier. It can create millions of jobs, generate billions in exports, and eliminate our $1.5 billion annual dairy import bill,” he said.
He urged the government to change its approach to economic management.
“Let us choose wisdom over hubris. Let us choose facilitation over operation. Let us choose prosperity for the many over rent for the few,” Oye added.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X