Nigeria’s economy is gaining momentum, with growth accelerating to 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 and foreign exchange reserves climbing to a 17-year high of $53.11 billion.
The improvement in headline indicators, however, has yet to translate into meaningful gains for millions of Nigerians, the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics has said.
The group said the widening gap between improving macroeconomic data and household welfare is becoming the central test of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, warning that stabilisation would remain incomplete if Nigerians continued to struggle with poverty, food insecurity, weak purchasing power and limited access to productive jobs.
In a policy statement titled “The Economy Is Stabilising. Now Let the People Feel It,” the Alliance acknowledged that the government had made progress in addressing structural weaknesses in the economy, particularly through petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange reforms, tighter monetary policy and the reduction of monetary financing of fiscal deficits.
But it argued that the real measure of the reforms would ultimately be whether stronger economic indicators begin to improve living conditions.
“Macroeconomic stability is necessary. It is not sufficient,” the group said, noting that a stronger exchange-rate regime, higher reserves and a lower debt ratio could not by themselves resolve household hardship.
It noted that Nigeria’s real gross domestic product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, up from 3.89 per cent in Q1, with both the oil and non-oil sectors recording stronger growth, citing that the IMF estimated 2025 growth at 4.0 per cent and projected 4.1 per cent growth for 2026.
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At the same time, the external buffers have strengthened considerably, with gross international reserves rising from $40 billion at the end of 2024 to $46 billion at the end of 2025, while net reserves increased from $23 billion to $35 billion. By August 24, 2026, gross reserves had climbed further to $53.11 billion, their highest level in 17 years.
The fiscal picture has also shown signs of improvement, with the World Bank projecting public debt to fall from 42.5 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 39.8 per cent in 2025, although the consolidated fiscal deficit widened slightly from 2.8 per cent to 3.1 per cent of GDP.
The financial system has similarly undergone major changes, with bank recapitalisation, preparations for inflation targeting and stronger financial-sector regulation forming part of the broader reform programme.
But the Alliance, citing the IMF’s June 2026 assessment, expressed concerns that poverty had reached 63 per cent at Nigeria’s national poverty line, while an estimated 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in autumn 2025.
The World Bank, it added, had warned that household incomes had not fully recovered and poverty remained high despite progress in restoring macroeconomic stability.
This divergence between national economic performance and household experience is what the Alliance described as Nigeria’s “poverty paradox”.
“The painful truth is that the economy can be improving in the aggregate while citizens are deteriorating in the particular,” the organisation said.
The data suggest that Nigeria has moved beyond the immediate phase of economic instability, but the next challenge is converting that stability into broader purchasing power and productive activity.
For the Alliance, this means shifting policy attention from simply improving macroeconomic indicators to reducing the structural costs that keep food, transport, electricity and other essentials out of reach for households and businesses.
It called for greater investment in agriculture, storage, transport, irrigation and power to reduce the cost of moving food from farms to consumers. It also said social protection should become more transparent and accountable, while cash transfers should complement rather than replace investment in jobs, education, healthcare and electricity.
The group also urged greater transparency in public finances, particularly at the state level, arguing that government borrowing and major allocations should be traceable from receipt to measurable public outcomes.
Ultimately, the Alliance said the success of the Tinubu administration’s economic programme should not be judged solely by reserves, GDP growth or debt ratios.
“The measure of the Tinubu economic project will therefore not be whether Nigeria can recite its reserves, growth rate, debt ratio, or reform catalogue,” it said, but whether Nigerians can afford basic necessities, find productive work and see public revenue translated into public goods.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X