Nigeria’s net foreign exchange inflow declined by 18.3 per cent year-on-year to $48.1 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, reflecting weaker capital inflows and persistent pressure on foreign exchange supply.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data showed that the decline was largely driven by a sharper 15 per cent drop in total foreign exchange inflows, which outweighed a 12.2 per cent reduction in outflows over the period.
Total forex inflows into the economy fell to $83.71 billion in the nine-month period, down from $99.44 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. Foreign exchange outflows also declined to $35.65 billion from $40.61 billion a year earlier.
A breakdown of the figures revealed a significant contraction in inflows through the CBN, which dropped by 30 per cent year-on-year to $28.72 billion in 9M’25, compared with $40.15 billion in the same period of 2024.
Inflows from autonomous sources also weakened, declining by 6.8 per cent to $54.99 billion from $59.29 billion.
On the outflow side, forex transactions through the CBN fell by 18.8 per cent to $25.68 billion, down from $32.16 billion in the previous year. However, outflows via autonomous sources rose by 18 per cent to $9.97 billion, compared with $8.44 billion in 9M’24.
Consequently, net forex flow through the CBN plunged by 62 per cent year-on-year to $3.04 billion, from $7.99 billion recorded in the same period of 2024. Net flows from autonomous sources also declined by 11.5 per cent to $45.02 billion.
Diaspora inflows weaken autonomous supply
Further analysis showed that inflows from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), a key pillar of autonomous foreign exchange supply, weakened significantly, underscoring growing pressures on diaspora remittances.
IMTO inflows declined by 15.7 per cent year-on-year to $3.22 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, from $3.82 billion in the corresponding period of 2024.
The decline cut across all three quarters of the year. In Q1’25, IMTO inflows fell by 18 per cent to $888.3 million, down from $1.08 billion in Q1’24. This was followed by a 6.5 per cent decline in Q2’25 to $1.18 billion, compared with $1.26 billion a year earlier. In Q3’25, inflows dropped sharply by 22 per cent to $1.15 billion from $1.48 billion in Q3’24.
The sustained contraction in IMTO inflows dampened overall autonomous forex supply, despite policy efforts aimed at boosting remittances through official channels.
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On a quarterly basis, net foreign exchange inflow declined by 6.4 per cent in Q1’25 and by 4.1 per cent in Q2’25. However, the trend reversed in Q3’25, with net inflows rising by 20 per cent quarter-on-quarter.
According to the CBN’s Q3’25 Quarterly Economic Report, the rebound was driven largely by a sharp reduction in forex outflows.
Net foreign exchange inflow rose to $17.46 billion in Q3’25 from $14.46 billion in the preceding quarter. While aggregate forex inflows edged down by 4.17 per cent to $26.27 billion, outflows fell significantly by 32.01 per cent to $8.80 billion, providing temporary relief to the external sector.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
