Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus surged 101.32 per cent year-on-year to ₦12.60 trillion in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, up from the surplus recorded in Q2 2025
The surge was buoyed by strong export earnings from crude oil, petroleum products and other raw materials.
According to the Foreign Trade in Goods Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, September 7, the country’s total merchandise trade in Q2 2026 was ₦41.44 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.61 per cent when compared to ₦39.24 trillion recorded in Q2 2025. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, it rose by 19.13 per cent from ₦34.79 trillion in Q1 2026.
Out of the ₦41.44 trillion total trade, ₦14.42 trillion was imports, while exports stood at ₦27.02 trillion, reflecting a balance of ₦12.60 trillion.
The export volume represents 65.02 per cent of the total trade, while imports accounted for 35 per cent. While imports dropped 12.55 per cent year-on-year from ₦16.49 trillion in Q2 2025, exports rose by 18.77 per cent from ₦22.75 trillion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The sharp increase underscores the continuing dominance of commodities in Nigeria’s external trade, even as the country seeks to expand non-oil exports and deepen domestic value addition.
The latest trade performance comes amid increased activity in the oil and gas sector, with rising domestic refining capacity also opening new opportunities for petroleum-product exports.
While the stronger trade balance offers some relief for Nigeria’s foreign-exchange position, the composition of exports raises concerns about the country’s continued dependence on primary commodities.
The NBS report indicates that crude oil exports alone were worth ₦12.91 trillion, accounting for 47.79 per cent of total exports during the period. The Q2 2026 figure reflects a 7.93 per cent rise from Q2 2025 and 15.28 per cent from Q1 2026. This is followed by ₦10.38 trillion recorded for other oil products, which saw a year-on-year increase of 38.40 per cent and 53.05 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis (₦6.78 trillion in Q1 2026).
Raw materials came third in the export trade component with ₦2.31 trillion, accounting for 8.55 per cent of the total.
Altogether, crude oil and other oil products accounted for roughly N23.29 trillion, or about 86.3 per cent of Nigeria’s total export earnings in Q2 2026.
Crude oil remains the backbone of Nigeria’s export earnings, leaving the country vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices and production levels. The growing contribution of refined petroleum products, however, could signal a gradual shift towards exporting higher-value energy products.
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The NBS report shows that agricultural goods exports were worth ₦802.99 billion, manufactured goods, ₦393.03 billion, solid mineral goods, ₦146.91 billion, and energy goods, ₦81.35 billion.
The figure for agricultural goods exports represents a 36.09 per cent decline from ₦1.26 trillion recorded in Q2 2025. It also represented a 31.51 per cent fall from ₦1.17 trillion in Q1 2026.
Analysts note that the challenge for policymakers is to convert the improved trade position into sustained economic gains by expanding manufacturing, processing agricultural commodities locally and developing mineral resources beyond the export of raw materials.
More concerning is that while agricultural goods exports declined, imports increased by 1.63 per cent year-on-year to ₦1.20 trillion. When compared with Q1 2026, it represents a jump of 45.43 per cent.
This means Nigeria imported more agricultural goods and exported less in the quarter under review.
According to the report, major agricultural exports included cashew nuts, cocoa beans, sesame seeds and soya beans.
Economists have long argued that Nigeria’s trade performance will remain vulnerable unless the country moves beyond the traditional model of exporting crude oil and unprocessed commodities while importing finished goods.
The Q2 improvement therefore presents both an opportunity and a warning: Nigeria is earning more from international trade, but the durability of the gains will depend on whether the country can diversify its export base and capture more value before its products reach global markets.
Victor Ezeja is a Nigerian journalist skilled in producing insightful news analyses, feature stories, and interviews that simplify complex issues and drive informed public discourse. His work combines rigorous research, balanced reporting, and compelling storytelling to highlight developments shaping industries and society. Victor, who holds a Master's Degree in Mass Communication, specializes in energy, aviation, business, and economic reporting. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X