The Nigerian stock market capitalisation is expected to surge to over N260 trillion in 2026, from the overall N91 trillion the market is currently valued.
The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said this on Thursday, November 27.
He projected this while speaking broadly on Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 at the Parthian Economic Discourse event held in Lagos on Thursday.
“Nigerian stock market capitalisation expected to reach N262 trillion in 2026, up 191% from the current market capitalisation of N90 trillion,” Rewane stated.
The renowned economist noted the key drivers that will propel the market growth to include the expected listing of the Dangote Refinery, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), and other big players.
He said that with this expectation, the market will make up about 72 per cent of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP).
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This will further boost investors’ confidence in the market, coupled with robust earnings from top players across sectors in the market.
Other key projections
– GDP Growth
Rewane noted that following the rebasing of the economy, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $250 billion.
He said: “2025 national income identity reflects resilient GDP growth of 4%, with consumption subdued by inflation, investment rising via FGN bonds, government spending N49.7 trillion, exports boosted by oil/gas earnings, and imports constrained by FX reserves.”
The GDP growth is expected to maintain a positive momentum in the coming year at 4.1 per cent per annum, projecting that it will rise to $261.25 billion in 2026 from the $250 billion it currently stands.
According to Rewane, Nigeria will experience positive but moderate growth through expanded business activity gains and supportive investment.
– Inflation
The FDC boss projects that Nigeria’s headline inflation will continue its downward trend in 2026, with headline inflation projected at 12.7 per cent, food and core inflation at 20 per cent.
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“Sustained disinflationary monetary policy with expected further cut in the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to stimulate credit expansion and boost production will help bring down inflation,” he explained.
– FX rate
Rewane said the foreign exchange (FX) rate is expected to appreciate and hover around N1,450 to N1,500 per dollar in 2026, in anticipation that foreign reserves will boost FX supply and reduce pressure on the naira.
This is also anticipated on the ground that the inflation-interest rate differential will be driven by elevated policy rates, he said.
– Interest rate
He forecasts the interest rate will fall to 23 per cent in 2026 as the CBN will implement gradual rate cuts in response to disinflation while ensuring liquidity control through the cash reserve ratio and liquidity ratio.
He noted that before the CBN implements rate cuts, several critical considerations will guide the decision.
This includes stability in the FX market, money supply growth, and global oil prices will come into play.
Factors that will shape the 2026 outlook
According to the renowned economist, key factors that will shape Nigeria in 2026 include insecurity, huge election spending, decline in debt servicing, expected surge in stock market capitalisation, tax reform bills implementation, and the proposed 15 per cent import duty on fuel importation.
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He explained that the projection could change if the price of crude oil falls below $60 per barrel and heightened insecurity in the food-basket states could lead to higher food inflation.
He also hinted that the increase in election spending and global commodity prices, stressing that cocoa may fall sharply if Ukraine and Russia halt their skirmishes.
Investments to watch out for
The renowned economist urged investors to look out for gold, equities, treasury bills, and real estate as these assets will be the top havens in 2026, noting that the portfolio mix will be determined by risk threshold.
Capital market
On equities, Rewane projects that a stable MPC rate will support broad market growth; investors’ focus will shift towards long-term holdings due to the new capital gains tax; and robust earnings will boost investor confidence.
On the T-bill, he said yields are expected to gradually compress across all tenors due to moderating inflation and improved liquidity, with the 91-day T-bill falling to around 14-15 per cent.
On bond, he said, if disinflation persists with the apex bank maintenance of the measure policy stance, the FGN 2030/2032 bonds are likely to drop from the 16 per cent yield.
Banks stability
Renewed forecast that modest economic growth of 3-4 per cent will support credit demand and lower default risk, thereby enhancing asset quality.
He said if headline inflation stabilises around or below the CBN target of 12-14 per cent, it will support lending and reduce pressure on the banks’ real returns.
“A relatively stable Naira, especially in the official BDC markets, reduces FX risk exposure for banks with foreign-dominated liabilities,” he said, adding that banks that meet up with capital raise are better position for growth in the coming year.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X
