Despite a dramatic threat from US President Donald Trump to launch military action against Nigeria over alleged Christian persecution, the country’s economy remains remarkably stable, reflecting resilience amid geopolitical tensions.
Data from key economic activities as monitored by Pinnacle daily highlight a robust economic outlook, showcasing the Nigerian economy’s ability to weather external challenges.
Trump’s recent remarks came amidst the country’s ongoing recovery from a difficult period marked by economic reforms.
In a bid to curb the violence against Christians by militant groups, Trump vowed military intervention unless the Nigerian government takes stronger actions.
However, analysts and key economic indicators suggest that Nigeria’s economic trajectory remains unaffected, with confidence in its financial markets and reforms holding firm.
Economic Performance and Investor Confidence
Under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria has undertaken significant economic reforms that have improved foreign exchange liquidity, narrowed exchange rate gaps, and boosted investor confidence.
The shift to a willing buyer/willing seller FX dynamic has led to a rise in trade surplus and a more stable currency market. Additionally, the country’s external reserves have reached a three-year high, now standing in excess of $43 billion.
However, Trump’s threat has sparked concerns about the country’s image as an investment destination. Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, cautioned that even a mere threat of military action could severely damage Nigeria’s reputation, destabilising the financial markets and undermining investor confidence.
“Such rhetoric could lead to declines in foreign direct investment (FDI), capital flight, and heightened investor anxiety,” said Yusuf.
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He also highlighted the risk of market volatility, with potential increases in sovereign bond yields, naira depreciation, and heightened country risk premiums due to capital outflows.
Despite these concerns, there is little evidence to suggest that the Nigerian economy has entered a panic mode, as economic activities continue to display positive trends.
Eurobond Oversubscription: A Sign of Investor Confidence
One of the most significant indicators of resilience is the overwhelming success of Nigeria’s $2.35 billion Eurobond issuance on November 5, which saw an oversubscription rate of 453%, with total orders amounting to $13 billion. The Debt Management Office (DMO) confirmed that the strong investor appetite was a reflection of renewed global confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform path, despite geopolitical uncertainties.
The Eurobonds, with maturities in 2036 and 2046, attracted a diverse range of international investors from North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Nigeria itself.
“This oversubscription not only demonstrates the confidence investors have in Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary management but also signals a solid commitment to Nigeria’s long-term economic growth.” The DMO said.
Business Growth and Economic Sentiment
The latest Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) report by NESG-Stanbic IBTC also provides a positive snapshot of Nigeria’s business climate.
In October 2025, the Business Performance Index rose to 111.3 points, reflecting a moderate but significant improvement from September 2025. Year-on-year, business performance has improved by 34.5 points, underscoring optimism in Nigeria’s business environment.
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While challenges like limited access to finance, high rental costs, policy uncertainty, poor power supply, and insecurity persist, the overall outlook for business growth remains optimistic.
The Future Business Expectation Index remained strong at 132.9 points, demonstrating sustained optimism in future business conditions. The trade sector showed the highest confidence, while the services sector was less optimistic.
Foreign Exchange and Currency Market Stability
On the foreign exchange front, the Nigerian currency market has displayed stability despite the tense geopolitical climate.
Following Trump’s threat, the Bureau De Change (BDC) rate showed only a modest depreciation of 0.35%, from N1,440 to N1,445 per US dollar. Similarly, the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rate held steady, closing at N1,421.73 per US dollar.
This relatively stable movement in the exchange rate, coupled with the continued liquidity in the FX market, points to investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience.
Despite minor fluctuations, the market has not reacted excessively to Trump’s statements, further affirming that the country’s economy is not in a state of panic.
Stock Market Performance and Investor Sentiment
The Nigerian stock market, however, did experience some volatility in the wake of Trump’s remarks. The All-Share Index (ASI) fell by 0.25% on Monday, November 2, losing N245.88 billion in market capitalisation. This downward trend continued on Tuesday, with a further 0.72% decline, wiping off an additional N611.96 billion from market value.
The decline was largely attributed to sell-offs in major stocks such as HONYFLOUR, NNFM, and UNILEVER, with other companies in the consumer goods and financial sectors also seeing declines.
While these losses may appear significant, they are part of a broader pattern of market corrections that are not solely tied to the geopolitical tensions.
Analysts suggest that investor sentiment is still largely influenced by internal factors such as corporate performance, rather than external threats.
Regional and International Support for Nigeria’s Sovereignty
On the international front, Nigeria has received backing from global powers, including the European Union (EU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and China. These entities have expressed their opposition to any military intervention in Nigeria, stressing the complexity of the country’s security challenges.
The EU’s spokesperson emphasised that the violence in Nigeria is not solely based on religious divides, noting that terrorism affects all faiths in the region.
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Similarly, ECOWAS condemned any actions that would undermine Nigeria’s sovereignty and stressed that terrorism impacts people of all religions, ethnicities, and backgrounds.
China, a strategic partner of Nigeria, also voiced its opposition to military intervention, warning the US against using the pretext of human rights to justify actions that could destabilise Nigeria.
China’s foreign ministry reiterated its support for Nigeria’s development path and urged the international community to respect the country’s sovereignty.
US Military Plans and Global Reactions
The United States military has reportedly been preparing for possible airstrikes in Nigeria as part of Trump’s orders to protect Christians from militant groups.
These plans, which range from limited drone operations to full-scale airstrikes, reflect the US’s commitment to addressing the security situation in the region.
However, senior Pentagon officials have acknowledged that such interventions are unlikely to resolve Nigeria’s ongoing insurgencies unless they evolve into a broader campaign similar to those in Iraq or Afghanistan.
As global powers weigh in on the situation, it is clear that while the US’s stance may have immediate diplomatic repercussions, Nigeria’s economy has shown resilience in the face of these external pressures. Both the government’s reforms and the continued investor confidence demonstrate that, at least in the short term, the country’s economy remains on a growth trajectory.
Sunday Michael Ogwu is a Nigerian journalist and editor of Pinnacle Daily. He is known for his work in business and economic reporting. He has held editorial roles in prominent Nigerian media outlets, where he has focused on economic policy, financial markets, and developmental issues affecting Nigeria and Africa more broadly.
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