In a bold policy paper, Dele Kelvin Oye, the Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), has raised an alarm about Nigeria’s growing dependence on foreign powers, particularly the United States.
He warns that if Nigeria does not adjust its approach to governance, the country could find itself in a position similar to Venezuela, which has seen its sovereignty threatened by external forces.
Oye, a former Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) and current Chairman of the Nigeria-Türkiye Business Council (NTBC), delivered this cautionary message in a policy paper titled “After the Repo-Man Cometh: Nigeria’s American Romance and the Don-Row Doctrine of Asset Liquidation.”
His remarks highlight the dangers posed by Nigeria’s economic policies and its reliance on foreign loans and external military assistance.
The Venezuela Warning
Oye’s most pressing concern is the growing unrestrained government spending, borrowing, and reliance on international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank.
He contends that Nigeria is “dancing with the tiger” in its current relationship with the U.S. and other foreign partners.
While foreign military and economic assistance may provide short-term relief, Oye warns that they undermine the nation’s long-term economic sovereignty.
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“If we’re not careful with our current unrestrained, bloated government recurrent expenditures, borrowings/deficit financing, and unnecessary reliance on IMF and World Bank prescriptions, the U.S. could easily use our current joint war on insurgency to treat Nigeria like Venezuela in the event of loan default, like a distressed asset waiting for a takeover,” Oye cautioned.
He referenced the U.S. invasion of Venezuela on January 3rd, 2026, which was framed as a repo-man approach, where the U.S. seized Venezuela’s natural resources after the country defaulted on its debts.
A New Geopolitical Threat
In his analysis, Oye coined the term “Don-Row Doctrine”, a modern evolution of the early Monroe Doctrine.
The Monroe Doctrine, which prevented foreign interference in the Western Hemisphere, is now being replaced with a more aggressive strategy—the Don-Row Doctrine.
This new doctrine allows for direct intervention and resource seizure when countries fail to meet financial obligations, a concept Oye describes as the geopolitical equivalent of a landlord kicking down a door to seize unpaid assets.
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“This doctrine signifies the endgame,” Oye said. “Intervention has moved from limited influence to full ownership of the distressed asset.”
He fears that without drastic reforms, Nigeria’s natural resources could be framed as “unrecovered property” of external creditors, with the U.S. and other foreign powers laying claim to them as part of a financial restructuring process.
Calls for Economic Self-Reliance
Oye’s warning is not just about external threats but also about the need for Nigeria to self-manage its economic destiny.
He stresses that for the country to avoid becoming a “distressed asset,” it must urgently reduce the cost of governance, cut back on deficit financing, and build internal economic resilience. This means focusing on homegrown solutions rather than relying on international partners to save the nation.
The key to Nigeria’s future, according to Oye, lies in economic restructuring, which includes improving governance and increasing transparency.
He advocates for a Nigeria built by Nigerians for Nigerians, which he believes is the only way to protect the country from external interference.
“Nigeria must be built by Nigerians for Nigerians; if not, we will be managed by others for themselves,” Oye warned. “Restructuring fiscal policies and reducing dependency on external borrowing are crucial for a self-sufficient economic future.”
The Path Forward
Oye’s said Nigeria’s survival as a sovereign nation is at risk unless the government takes bold steps to reform the economy.
He argued that reducing foreign dependency, fostering economic self-reliance, and implementing sustainable fiscal policies are crucial to ensuring the country’s long-term stability.
Sunday Michael Ogwu is a Nigerian journalist and editor of Pinnacle Daily. He is known for his work in business and economic reporting. He has held editorial roles in prominent Nigerian media outlets, where he has focused on economic policy, financial markets, and developmental issues affecting Nigeria and Africa more broadly.
