The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) recorded a shortfall in its revenue target in August 2025 despite improved crude oil production in recent months.
The Commission remitted N745.21 billion to the Federation Account in August against a monthly benchmark of N1.204 trillion. This reflects a shortfall of N459.6 billion.
This was revealed by the NUPRC in its presentation at the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting on September 17.
This N745.21 billion remittance represents a performance rate of 61.85 percent.
The August remittance revealed a 3.05 per cent increase compared to the N723.1 billion recorded in July.
“Total collection increased by N22.04 billion equivalent to 3.05 per cent when compared with July 2025. The increase in collection for the month of August 2025 can be attributed to a revenue drive that led to improvement in almost all the revenue heads,” the Commission stated.
An analysis of the report, however, showed that the shortfall in revenue target was largely driven by poor royalty inflows from oil and gas.
According to the report, N682.28 billion was realised from royalty payments, against N1.144 trillion budgeted, leaving a deficit of N461.89 billion.
NUPRC said it has transferred N5.475 trillion to the Federation Account between January and August 2025 through the Central Bank of Nigeria.
It also revealed that a total of N7.103 trillion has been collected and paid into the Federation Account in the last eight months.
“The Commission’s performance from January to August 2025 is N7.103 trillion, inclusive of NNPC Limited JV and PSC royalty receivables of N1.050 trillion for the period, as well as Project Gazelle receipts of N730.24 billion for November 2024 (received in January 2025), and from January, March to June 2025,” the report stated.
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Earlier, NUPRC had reported that Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector recorded an average daily production of 1.63 million barrels of crude oil and condensates in August 2025, higher than the 1.58 million barrels per day produced in August 2024.
The Crude Oil and Condensate Production Report for August indicated that crude oil output alone stood at 1.43 million barrels per day, representing a 5.47 per cent increase from 1.36 million barrels per day recorded in August 2024. Condensate production, however, fell to 197,229 barrels per day from 220,435 barrels per day in the same period last year.
It noted that the August crude oil production represented 96 per cent of its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, reflecting the country’s improving capacity to meet output targets.
Despite the output, the NUPRC’s report notes issues that continue to impact the industry’s revenue stream. Structural challenges such as pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and technical limitations have restricted production.
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Also, volatile global crude oil prices have created fiscal uncertainty, hampering income projections and collection operations.
Outstanding payments continue to be a source of concern. Royalties for Project Gazelle for December 2024, as well as February, July, and August 2025, were not paid in August.
The report also indicated that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) owes N6.61 trillion in joint venture royalties between October 2022 and August 2025, highlighting the need for better compliance enforcement and monitoring.
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The NUPRC also stated that it has made headway in recovering certain overdue payments, collecting $41.89 million in August from total amounts owed by PSCs, Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Contracts, and Risk Service Contracts.
However, $1.42 billion remained overdue, indicating the ongoing difficulty of revenue recovery.
The NUPRC’s significant remittances over the past eight months demonstrate continuous efforts to support Nigeria’s fiscal base in the face of upstream operational and regulatory challenges.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.
