Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a slight increase from 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October to 1.436 million bpd in November 2025.
This reflects a 35,000 bpd month-on-month increase.
This is according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Thursday, December 11.
OPEC said the figure was based on data obtained through direct communication with the country’s authorities.
Despite the marginal increase, it shows the country has again failed to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.
This is the fourth consecutive month of missing the OPEC quota. The last time Nigeria reached the OPEC quota in 2025 was in July, when it recorded 1.507 million bpd.
OPEC data excludes condensate. According to data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s average daily production of condensate in October was 196,028 bpd.
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The November outcome highlights the country’s ongoing struggle to sustain production recovery due to issues like insecurity, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment.
Nigeria’s failure to achieve its OPEC quota for four months in a row poses a threat to its foreign exchange earnings, as oil remains the country’s primary revenue source.
The 2025 budget had an estimate of 2.06 million bpd of crude oil and $75 per barrel, but the country has continued to record a production deficit.
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However, the modest increase in output suggests a sluggish but steady recovery, which might boost the government’s budgetary situation if continued.
Industry watchers believe that with the ongoing rehabilitation of refineries, the coming onstream of new private refineries like Dangote’s, and the renewed focus on upstream investment, Nigeria could be positioning itself for a stronger showing in 2026, if it addresses security and infrastructure bottlenecks that continue to impede growth.
The country’s oil authorities have set an ambitious target for 2026 and beyond. Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) recently stated that the country plans to demand a higher oil production quota, arguing that the current 1.5 million bpd does not reflect its true capacity.
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The NUPRC had set a production target of at least 2.1 million bpd for 2025 and 2.5 million bpd by 2027.
The November figures show a step in the right direction, but they also underscore that Nigeria’s oil sector is still struggling to overcome deep-rooted problems that prevent it from fulfilling its production capacity and international obligations.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.
