Despite recording a marginal increase in crude oil production in October, Nigeria has, however, failed to meet its OPEC production quota for the third consecutive month.
Nigeria recorded 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, slightly up from 1.39 million bpd in September 2025.
This is according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday.
The last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd was in July 2025, when it recorded 1.507 million bpd.
The OPEC’s latest report indicates that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, down from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
The figures underscore the country’s persistent struggle to maintain crude oil output growth despite increased investments and government assistance in the upstream industry.
Implications of Failing to Meet OPEC Quota
There are concerns that Nigeria’s failure to meet its OPEC production quota for a third consecutive month in 2025 has serious implications for the country’s economy, its position in the global oil market, and its standing within the OPEC cartel.
Though Nigeria’s persistent failure to meet its OPEC production quota is not a new issue, its continuation in 2025 reflects deep-rooted, unresolved issues. While the quota is meant to stabilise global oil prices, Nigeria is unable to produce enough oil to benefit from it fully.
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For three years, the country had failed to meet its OPEC production quotas. 2025 started on a promising note as production surged from 1.48 million bpd in December 2024 to 1.53 million bpd in January 2025. However, this turning point was just a momentary boost, as production dropped to 1.4 million bpd in February, 1.40 million bpd in March, 1.48 million bpd in April, and 1.45 million bpd in May 2025. It hit the OPEC target in June (1.50 million bpd) and July (1.507 million bpd) but plunged again to 1.43 million bpd in August and 1.39 million bpd in September, the lowest this year.
As oil revenue remains the major source of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, the inability to meet the OPEC quota poses a significant challenge.
An economist, Dr Ebikabowei Aduku, highlighted the implications of the current oil output on achieving the production target stipulated in 2025. The authorities estimated 2.06 million barrels per day in production and a price benchmark of $75 per barrel.
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Dr Aduku said it means that every barrel not produced and sold is lost revenue that could have been used to fund the national budget, service debt, and invest in infrastructure.
“For a country where over 80 per cent of foreign exchange earnings and about 50 per cent of government revenue come from oil, this is a critical blow to economic stability,” Aduku, who is a lecturer in the Department of Economics, University of Africa Toru-Orua, Bayelsa State, stated in a chat with Pinnacle Daily.
As the government’s budget is heavily reliant on projected oil revenue, he pointed out that missing the targets widens the deficit, leading to more borrowing and a growing national debt burden.
Threat to Nigeria’s Quest for a Higher OPEC Quota
Analysts have raised concerns that persistent underperformance weakens Nigeria’s negotiating position within the OPEC cartel and also poses a threat to its quest for a higher production quota.
Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, had in October disclosed plans to call on OPEC to increase Nigeria’s output quota to two million bpd, from the current 1.5 million bpd.
The minister, who reviewed Nigeria’s upstream oil performance four years after the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act and the establishment of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), said the request for upward review would be formally made during OPEC’s meeting in November.
He said the move is predicated on recent reforms, which have led to renewed investments in the oil and gas sector and an increase in oil rig counts. These, according to him, have positioned Nigeria to ramp up production capacity and therefore, make a strong case for a higher OPEC quota.
Lopkobiri, who said Nigeria is currently producing around 1.7 million barrels daily, including condensates, insisted that the country has the capacity to produce above two million barrels per day.
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“When I became minister, the OPEC quota for Nigeria was 1.5 million barrels per day because our production then was below that.
“Today, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels daily, including condensates, and we have the capacity to produce above two million barrels per day. It is time to review the quota upward,” Lokpobiri had stated in October.
Low oil output has been linked to recurring oil theft and insecurity around oil facilities, especially in the Niger Delta, which deters international investment needed to repair and expand production capacity.
Although the government has improved surveillance and security along oil pathways, output levels have yet to match pre-2020 levels, when the country typically exceeded 1.8 million barrels per day.
In an interview with Pinnacle Daily, energy expert Ikechukwu Okafor expressed optimism that with the current efforts by the authorities, Nigeria would see higher output in the future. He, however, called for robust measures for tackling oil theft and other issues that affect oil production. These include curbing corruption and deploying technology-driven security operations with real-time monitoring of pipelines. This, according to him, requires strong political will.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.
