The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has called on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to tie petrol import approvals to independently verified domestic supply gaps, warning that rising imports could undermine Nigeria’s growing refining capacity.
The group, in a policy brief issued on Sunday by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, said average Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports jumped from 5.9 million litres per day in May 2026 to 18.1 million litres per day in June and further to 19.7 million litres per day in July.
This means imports increased by 234 per cent between May and July, while their share of total PMS receipts rose from 12.4 per cent to 43.3 per cent over the same period.
CPPE said the sharp increase was concerning because it occurred alongside evidence of stronger domestic refining capacity.
“Petroleum-product imports should function as a transparent supply-gap instrument—not as a parallel market that displaces adequate domestic production,” the group said.
It said imports remained necessary where there was a genuine shortfall caused by refinery outages, seasonal demand increases, quality gaps or the need to replenish strategic stocks.
However, CPPE argued that import permits should not be issued where domestic refiners can supply products of acceptable quality and quantity at competitive prices.
The group said the issue was particularly important under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), whose Sections 317(8)–(9) contemplate petroleum-product import licensing in the context of a domestic supply shortfall.
It urged NMDPRA to publish a product-by-product supply-gap assessment before approving significant import volumes and allow qualified domestic refiners to meet verified demand.
Imports rise as domestic refining expands
According to CPPE, domestic PMS supply fell from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 32.5 million litres in June and 25.8 million litres in July.
At the same time, imported PMS rose from 5.9 million litres per day in May to 18.1 million litres in June and 19.7 million litres in July.
The development came as Dangote Refinery reported a test run above 700,000 barrels per day in June, while NMDPRA had reported average capacity utilisation of 99.12 per cent among domestic refineries in April.
CPPE also noted that Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product exports had risen strongly, arguing that aggregate refining capability was no longer the binding constraint it once was.
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The organisation said the regulator should make the burden of proof for imports transparent by publishing projected demand, verified domestic production and inventories, committed refinery deliveries, product specifications, logistics constraints and the precise residual volume requiring imports.
“Imports should close gaps—not create displacement,” CPPE said.
It warned that indiscriminate import licensing could reduce refinery offtake and utilisation while transferring demand, income and employment outside Nigeria.
CPPE warns of FX, investment risks
Yusuf said the consequences of unnecessary imports extend beyond the downstream petroleum market because every avoidable litre imported creates additional foreign-exchange demand for the product, freight, insurance and other associated costs.
Domestic refining, he said, retains more economic value within Nigeria and supports jobs across engineering, maintenance, fabrication, laboratories, haulage, storage, retail, maritime and professional services.
CPPE also described refining as a strategic industry capable of supporting wider industrial value chains, including petrochemicals, plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, paints and packaging.
The group warned that uncertainty over import policy could also affect investment in refineries because refining projects require large, patient and irreversible capital.
“If investors believe permits will admit imports irrespective of verified domestic availability, expected refinery utilisation and cash flow become less bankable,” it said.
CPPE therefore proposed a policy framework based on “domestic supply first, competition always, imports only for verified gaps.”
It stressed, however, that supporting domestic refining should not amount to protecting inefficient operators, allowing monopoly pricing or reducing consumer choice.
The group said domestic refiners should demonstrate deliverable volumes, while domestic and imported products should meet the same quality standards and face transparent pricing benchmarks.
It also called for an emergency-import mechanism that would allow faster approvals when inventories fall below defined thresholds or refinery outages create genuine supply disruptions.
CPPE further urged the government to ensure reliable crude supply to domestic refineries, arguing that restricting product imports without securing adequate feedstock would be inconsistent.
The group said NMDPRA should publish monthly data showing refinery output, domestic evacuation, inventories, consumption, exports, imports and stock-sufficiency days.
It also called for import permits to be linked to verified residual demand, time-limited and subject to performance audits to prevent speculative permits and permit warehousing.
Yusuf said Nigeria now had an opportunity to move from managing chronic import dependence to building a competitive domestic refining industry.
“Allowing imports without a transparent, verified shortfall would squander a historic opportunity to conserve foreign exchange, create jobs, deepen industrial linkages and strengthen energy security,” CPPE added.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X