Clarifying the 2027 Domestic Refinery Proposal
Broad Opposition and Alternative Economic Perspectives
Historic Context of Nigeria’s Price Control Policy
During his 2023 presidential campaign, Bola Tinubu made a firm, non-negotiable promise to remove the fuel subsidy immediately, a pledge he made a reality on May 29, 2023, the exact day he was sworn into office.
Within 24 hours of his speech, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) adjusted its official pricing template. Petrol prices instantly leaped from roughly ₦195 per litre to over ₦500 per litre across the nation, legally solidifying the end of the 46-year-old price control era on his very first afternoon in power.
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Multi-Year Macroeconomic Trajectory
Atiku’s Subsidy Plan Feasible If Properly Implemented — Prof Fage
Professor Kamilu Sani Fage of Bayero University, Kano, has described Atiku’s proposal to restore fuel subsidy through heavily discounted crude oil for local refineries as feasible, provided the government strictly enforces regulations and takes measures to prevent marketers from exploiting the policy.
Prof. Fage, who spoke exclusively with Pinnacle Daily, said Atiku’s change of position on subsidy should not necessarily be viewed as a political liability, arguing that public policies could be modified or abandoned when evidence shows that they were not achieving their intended objectives.
He described the criticism of Atiku’s position as largely political, noting that President Bola Tinubu also changed his position on fuel affordability after assuming office, despite campaign promises in 2023 that oil would be cheap and affordable in Nigeria.
According to him, policy analysis allows governments to evaluate existing policies and either continue, modify or completely abandon them based on feedback and outcomes.
“If we look at Atiku’s position that his subsidy will follow the barrel and that the subsidy will be for domestic refineries, that, to me, is feasible, provided certain measures are taken,” he said.
He stressed the need for strict enforcement of regulations, saying Nigeria’s problem was often not the absence of laws but the failure to enforce them.
Prof. Fage also called for measures to check the activities of marketers, arguing that some price increases in Nigeria were driven by attempts to take advantage of economic situations for excessive gains.
He maintained that effective implementation of the proposal could benefit Nigerians and help prevent a return to the problems associated with the existing system.
N19trn Subsidy Loss Claim
Reacting to the presidency’s claim that Atiku’s proposal could cost Nigeria about N19 trillion annually, Prof. Fage said there could be some financial losses from the domestic side but argued that the figure should be considered in the broader context of the policy.
He explained that Atiku’s plan focuses on strengthening domestic refineries to meet local energy needs. According to him, cheaper energy could lower production costs, support industries and increase economic activity, potentially generating revenue that could offset some subsidy costs.
Petrol Subsidy Return Won’t Fix Nigeria’s Real Problem, Bello Tells Pinnacle Daily
Speaking exclusively to Pinnacle Daily Dr Kazeem Bello, a global financial analyst and CEO of Afrique Capital and Equity Funds Limited, has warned that restoring petrol subsidy could recreate economic distortions and discourage investment.
Bello argued that Nigeria’s deeper problem is low wages and declining purchasing power rather than fuel prices alone.
He said blanket subsidies could also create pressure for similar interventions in electricity, transport and other sectors while leaving the underlying income problem unresolved.
He urged the government to prioritise higher wages, stronger disposable income and targeted welfare for genuinely vulnerable Nigerians.
Bello also challenged Atiku Abubakar to focus his 2027 economic plan on improving Nigerians’ earning power rather than returning to the subsidy regime, which he described as a “backwards strategy.”
The Road Ahead
As the 2027 election approaches, Atiku’s proposal is likely to remain a major economic and political talking point, particularly given his earlier support for subsidy removal.
While Professor Kamilu Sani Fage considers the proposal feasible if it is strictly regulated, targeted at domestic refineries and protected against exploitation by marketers, Dr Bello warns that returning to subsidy could recreate the economic distortions the policy was intended to eliminate.
Ultimately, the credibility of any subsidy policy may depend less on the promise itself than on how transparently, sustainably and effectively it is implemented and whether it delivers lasting relief to Nigerians .
Rafiyat Sadiq is a political, justice, and human rights reporter with Pinnacle Daily, known for fearless reporting and impactful storytelling. At Pinnacle Daily, she brings clarity and depth to issues shaping governance, democracy, and the protection of citizens’ rights.