Rising taxes and fuel price adjustments slowed business growth in Nigeria in January 2026, pushing confidence to a six-month low, according to the latest Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) report by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
The report showed that the Current Business Performance Index fell to 105.8 points in January from 112.0 points in December 2025. While still above the 100-point threshold for expansion, it marked the weakest performance in six months.
Business activity weakened across most sectors, with Agriculture falling to 99.5 points and Trade dropping to 92.7 points. Manufacturing and Services remained in expansion at 115.8 and 102.1 points respectively, though growth slowed compared with December.
The Non-manufacturing sector showed the strongest expansion momentum. NESG also reported that all major BCM sub-indices—including production, demand, investment, cash flow, access to credit, and supply orders declined compared with December.
Rising Costs Weigh on Firms
Cost pressures surged sharply, with the Cost of Doing Business Index rising to 90.5 points from 54.7 points and the Input Prices Index jumping to 96.9 points from 68.9 points. NESG described the situation as a “perfect storm” driven by tax reforms, fuel price adjustments, and lingering inflation, which eroded margins and constrained business operations. Businesses also continued to face limited access to finance, irregular power supply, and rising commercial property costs, all of which weighed on investment and expansion plans.
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The Future Business Expectation Index, measuring near-term outlook, eased to 124.7 points from 132.6 points in December 2025, marking the second consecutive month of declining confidence.
Despite the slowdown, all sectors remained optimistic about future conditions, though at varying levels. NESG noted that sustained government reforms could help Nigerian businesses leverage stability for growth, resilience, and improved performance in the coming months.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
