Reform Gains Must Translate Into Jobs, Welfare, Accountability, CPPE, Alliance Urge

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) and the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics have broadly acknowledged the gains recorded by the Federal Government under its economic reform programme, but both groups said the scorecard presented by Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, should not be judged only by improvements in macroeconomic indicators.

While CPPE said the reforms had delivered measurable gains in government revenues, foreign exchange stability, external reserves, trade and economic growth, it warned that the next phase must focus more directly on productivity, investment, jobs and household welfare.

The Alliance also acknowledged progress in fiscal and macroeconomic management but called for greater transparency, particularly around the Federal Government’s approximately $5 billion Total Return Swap facility with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

The two groups therefore agreed on the need to sustain the reform programme, although the Alliance placed greater emphasis on transparency and accountability, while CPPE focused more on moving the economy from stabilisation to stronger productive-sector growth and improved living standards.

CPPE: Reform Gains Must Now Translate Into Growth and Welfare

CPPE commended Oyedele for presenting the economic reform scorecard, saying the data provided greater clarity on the fiscal and macroeconomic outcomes of the reforms and addressed important concerns in public discourse.

The group said the Minister’s acknowledgement of both the gains and adjustment costs of the reforms was particularly important because transparency is critical to maintaining confidence in the reform process.

CPPE said the reforms had produced measurable macroeconomic improvements, including stronger government revenues, greater stability in the foreign exchange market, improved external reserves, an expanded trade surplus and a recovery in investor confidence.

It also noted that real GDP growth strengthened to 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 from 3.13 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.

However, CPPE stressed that these improvements should be viewed as the foundation for stronger economic performance rather than an end in themselves.

“Macroeconomic stability is a means, not an end,” the group said, arguing that the real test was whether the reforms would translate into higher productivity, stronger investment, more jobs, lower poverty and improved living standards.

According to CPPE, that transmission remains incomplete, as households continue to face pressure on purchasing power while businesses contend with high energy, financing, logistics and regulatory costs.

It said the next phase of the reform programme should therefore focus more strongly on productivity, competitiveness and household welfare.

READ ALSO:

• CPPE to FG: Cut Living Costs, Wages Alone Won’t Save Workers
• FG Borrowed 58% of ₦20.4trn Raised From Reforms
• IMF-Backed Monetary Tightening Could Push More Nigerians into Poverty — CPPE
• IMF Sees Stable Growth for Nigeria, Flags Four Key Risks
• Atiku’s Fuel Subsidy Plan Could Reopen Nigeria’s Economic Bottlenecks – Expert

CPPE: States Must Turn Higher Revenues Into Development

CPPE also called for greater accountability at the subnational level, following the increase in the fiscal resources available to state governments through higher statutory allocations and, in many cases, stronger internally generated revenues.

The group argued that the increased resources should result in a more visible development role for state governments.

It said citizens should demand measurable outcomes in roads, healthcare, public transportation, education, agricultural infrastructure, security, power and enterprise support.

“Higher revenues must produce a visible development and welfare dividend,” CPPE said, warning against the use of increased revenues mainly to finance higher recurrent expenditure and prestige projects.

The group’s position effectively shifts part of the responsibility for converting the gains from the reforms into improved living conditions from the Federal Government to the states, which have received a significant increase in fiscal resources.

CPPE: Productivity Should Become the Next Reform Frontier

CPPE said Nigeria’s major economic constraints are increasingly structural, identifying electricity, logistics, insecurity, agricultural productivity, infrastructure, regulatory costs and the cost of capital as areas requiring urgent attention.

The group pointed to the 15.3 per cent contraction in the electricity sector in the first quarter of 2026, compared with growth of 3.29 per cent in manufacturing and 3.15 per cent in agriculture.

It argued that accelerating productive-sector growth would require a decisive reduction in these structural costs.

CPPE also called for a trade policy that protects industries and agricultural producers with credible local capacity against unfair import competition while ensuring that producers retain access to critical inputs that are not adequately available locally.

The group further expressed concern about the high-interest-rate environment, saying stronger fiscal and monetary coordination should create room for a gradual reduction in financing costs as inflation moderates, without undermining macroeconomic stability.

CPPE: Reforms Should Be Sustained, Not Reversed

Despite its concerns, CPPE strongly rejected any reversal of the government’s reform programme.

The group said reversing the reforms would be “profoundly damaging to the economy” because it could undermine investor confidence, weaken fiscal stability, destabilise the foreign exchange market and reintroduce distortions that the reforms were designed to correct.

Instead, it called for the reform trajectory to be sustained while implementation is continuously adjusted based on evidence and its impact on businesses and households.

“Reform instruments should be continuously recalibrated in response to evidence, implementation experience and their impact on businesses and households,” CPPE said.

It summarised the next phase of reform as a shift “from stabilisation to productivity; from higher government revenues to better development outcomes; and from improving macroeconomic indicators to tangible gains in jobs, incomes and living standards.”

Alliance: Economic Gains Must Be Matched by Greater Transparency

The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics also acknowledged that the government’s reform scorecard presented evidence of progress, but argued that the figures should be subjected to deeper scrutiny.

The group said the scorecard was a welcome attempt to explain where public resources came from, how they were spent and what changed as a result of the reforms.

However, it raised particular concerns about Oyedele’s comments on the Federal Government’s approximately $5 billion Total Return Swap facility with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

The Minister had said: “We will not publish how we are spending it. We will publish how we spend government money. There’s nothing special about that loan.”

The Alliance argued that the statement deserved scrutiny because the facility involves public institutions, public collateral and public risk.

It said the transaction should neither automatically be treated as a scandal nor dismissed as a routine financing arrangement beyond public scrutiny.

“The central proposition is simple: Nigeria’s reforms may be producing real macroeconomic gains, but those gains will not endure if citizens are asked to trust what they are not permitted to understand or question,” the Alliance said.

Alliance: ₦20.4tn in Resources Should Not Be Presented as Free Cash

The Alliance also examined the government’s claim that reforms generated approximately ₦20.4 trillion in incremental Federal Government resources.

According to the scorecard, the amount comprised ₦5.43 trillion in the Federal Government’s estimated share of subsidy savings, ₦3.12 trillion in other incremental revenues and ₦11.85 trillion in incremental borrowing.

The Alliance noted that the figures add up to approximately ₦20.40 trillion but stressed that borrowing is financing rather than internally generated revenue.

It therefore argued that the figure should be presented as fiscal space and a change in the government’s financing mix rather than ₦20.4 trillion in free cash generated by the reforms.

The group also noted that the reported ₦15.8 trillion in subsidy savings was shared across the Federation, with approximately ₦5.43 trillion going to the Federal Government, ₦6.52 trillion to states and ₦3.88 trillion to local governments.

According to the Alliance, this distinction matters because subsidy removal reduced a major fiscal burden and changed the distribution of resources, but also imposed a severe price shock on households.

At the centre of the issue, it said, is whether the savings and additional fiscal resources are being converted into better public services, stronger productivity and credible social protection.

Alliance: Lower Inflation Does Not Mean Lower Prices

The Alliance also cautioned against interpreting the decline in inflation as a return to previous price levels.

It noted that the Ministry’s scorecard highlighted headline inflation of 15.91 per cent in June 2026, down from 22.41 per cent in May 2023.

The group said the direction was encouraging but argued that the lived experience of households remained difficult because disinflation means prices are increasing more slowly, rather than returning to their previous levels.

It said food inflation, real wages, employment quality and poverty should therefore be considered alongside headline inflation when assessing the success of the reforms.

The Alliance argued that macroeconomic stabilisation must ultimately be transmitted into household welfare through jobs, food security, targeted transfers, affordable transport, productive credit and reliable public services.

Alliance: Abu Dhabi Financing Requires More Disclosure

The Alliance’s strongest criticism focused on the First Abu Dhabi Bank facility.

It said public reporting described the arrangement as a Total Return Swap rather than a conventional fixed-rate sovereign bond and argued that the structure warranted greater disclosure because it involves public collateral and potential public financial risks.

The group said the government should publish, subject to legitimate confidentiality restrictions, the material terms of the facility, including the amount drawn, tranche structure, pricing, fees, collateral arrangements, margin-call provisions, termination conditions and the use of proceeds.

It rejected the suggestion that legislative approval alone should end questions about the facility.

“Legislative approval is constitutionally and institutionally important. It is not the same as continuous public accountability,” the Alliance said.

It argued that approval does not necessarily tell the public how much has been drawn, what collateral has been pledged, what triggers could accelerate payment, what the effective cost is, or how the proceeds have been used.

The Alliance also questioned the Minister’s comparison of the facility with other government borrowing instruments, arguing that the structure of a Total Return Swap makes it important to disclose its specific risks and costs.

Alliance: Sustain Reform, But Make Accountability Part of It

Despite its criticism, the Alliance did not call for a reversal of the government’s reform programme.

Instead, it said Nigeria’s macroeconomic gains should be protected while accountability mechanisms are strengthened.

The group recommended regular disclosure of the Abu Dhabi facility, including drawdowns, utilisation and collateral, as well as a broader expansion of the government’s reform scorecard to cover complex financing arrangements and contingent liabilities.

It also called for stronger legislative oversight and improved reporting by relevant government institutions.

The Alliance said the government should institutionalise the reform scorecard and publish it regularly with clear baselines, targets and methodologies.

“A scorecard becomes trusted when it reports an unfavourable number with the same confidence as a favourable one,” it said.

The group also advocated a broader and more efficient tax base, stronger social protection and a citizens’ macroeconomic dashboard covering inflation, GDP growth, external reserves, debt, capital expenditure, non-oil revenue, capital inflows, poverty, food security and employment.

The Common Ground: Stabilisation Must Lead to Better Lives

The positions of CPPE and the Alliance converge on an important point: the government’s reform gains should not be judged solely by improvements in headline economic indicators.

CPPE wants the next phase to move from stabilisation towards productivity, competitiveness and welfare, while the Alliance wants the government to pair macroeconomic gains with greater transparency and accountability.

Both groups also reject a return to the policies and distortions that preceded the reforms.

For CPPE, the priority is to sustain the reform direction while refining its implementation to ensure that higher revenues, stronger reserves and improved macroeconomic stability translate into productive investment, jobs and better living standards.

For the Alliance, the priority is to ensure that the reform process remains credible by making the management of public resources more transparent, particularly where complex financing arrangements create public risks.

The broader message from both assessments is therefore that the government’s scorecard is an important measure of what has changed, but not yet a complete measure of whether the reforms are delivering their ultimate promise.

The next test will be whether macroeconomic stability can translate into stronger production, lower business costs, more jobs, improved household purchasing power and better public services, while ensuring that citizens can clearly see how public resources are being raised, borrowed and spent.