NBS Inflation Data Raises Credibility Questions — CPPE

Share Tweet Share Send

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concerns over the credibility of recent changes to Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) computation, warning that adjustments to the methodology may be weakening confidence in official inflation data.

The Centre made this known in its policy brief on Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation released on Sunday.

“The decline in inflation suggests that macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to take effect. However, adjustments to CPI computation parameters have created credibility gaps, undermining the confidence of investors, analysts, businesses, and policymakers,” CPPE stated.

It said although the changes have not materially altered the disinflation trend recorded over the past 12 months, they have raised serious credibility questions.

It noted that Nigeria’s inflation rate declined to 15.15 per cent in December 2025, extending the moderation trend, while month-on-month inflation fell to 0.54 per cent from 1.22 per cent in November.

Food inflation dropped sharply to 10.84 per cent, with a month-on-month food price deflation of 0.36 per cent, providing relief to households, while core inflation rose to 18.63 per cent from 18.04 per cent in November, despite relative exchange-rate stability.

The Centre pointed out that food and beverages, housing, restaurants, transportation, and fuel accounted for about 72 per cent of inflationary pressure.

While acknowledging that inflation is easing, CPPE stressed that structural drivers of high costs, particularly energy, transportation, logistics, and insecurity, remain firmly in place.

It also warned that the sharp decline in food prices, while beneficial to consumers, is eroding farmers’ returns amid rising input costs, posing risks to agricultural investment and long-term food security, even as the Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, has indicated that the government is addressing this challenge.

Although inflation is moderating in the macroeconomic context, the Centre stressed that data credibility is weakening, calling for a review and strengthening of CPI methodology to better reflect economic realities.

READ ALSO:

It highlighted persistent structural constraints, including high energy and fuel costs, rising transport and logistics expenses, insecurity affecting agriculture, high interest rates, and import duties on key production inputs, warning that these factors continue to undermine price stability.

The CPPE believes there is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, with structural reforms complementing monetary tightening to curb inflation without weakening production.

It recommended that the government focus on reducing the cost of food, transport, and utilities by tackling insecurity, lowering farmers’ input costs, supporting key crop prices, reducing import duties on production inputs, and improving fiscal–monetary coordination.

It also urged the National Bureau of Statistics to strengthen data accuracy, enhance analytical rigour in CPI computation, and rebuild public and investor confidence in official statistics.

“The December 2025 inflation data confirms that Nigeria’s inflation is moderating, driven largely by food price declines. This is a positive development for households and economic stability.

“However, sustaining this progress requires urgent action to address structural cost pressures, support agricultural producers, and restore confidence in inflation data. Without these measures, the gains in affordability and price stability may not endure,” CPPE added.

Post Views: 95