Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent in August, while monthly food prices declined by 1.55 per cent, according to data released on Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS said month-on-month headline inflation slowed to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in August, representing a decline of 0.65 percentage points.
However, annual food inflation edged up to 19.59 per cent from 19.57 per cent in August, while core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, declined to 12.95 per cent from 13.29 per cent.
Despite the decline in annual core inflation, the monthly rate rose to 1.11 per cent in September from a 0.06 per cent decline in August, suggesting renewed pressure on prices outside volatile food and energy components.
The September figures present a mixed outlook for households and businesses, with lower overall inflation and falling monthly food prices alongside persistent food costs and renewed monthly core price pressures.
CPPE warns of energy shock, urges rate cuts
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said rising energy costs could undermine the benefits of declining inflation, urging the government to reduce and cut distribution costs while considering further monetary easing as conditions permit.
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In a policy brief issued on Thursday, October 15, CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, said monthly energy inflation accelerated sharply to 5.38 per cent in September from 0.36 per cent in August, while annual energy inflation stood at 10.85 per cent.
The organisation said higher petrol, diesel and gas prices could raise transportation, distribution and production costs, with further effects on food prices and underlying inflation.
“The sharp monthly energy-price increase also raises the risk that the recent disinflationary gains could be reversed if higher energy costs persist,” Yusuf said.
CPPE attributed the energy-price pressure partly to volatility in global petroleum markets arising from the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.
It recommended stronger domestic energy resilience through more reliable electricity supply, expanded compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure, greater adoption of electric mobility and improved domestic refining efficiency.
The organisation also called for gradual interest-rate reductions as inflation conditions permit, arguing that high borrowing costs have constrained manufacturing, agriculture, construction, distributive trade and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises.
It said lower financing costs could improve access to credit, support working capital and encourage private-sector investment, but warned that monetary easing must account for inflation expectations, exchange-rate conditions and energy-price risks.
Food inflation threatens household spending
CPPE said annual food inflation of 19.59 per cent remained a major threat to household welfare, exceeding headline inflation by 4.96 percentage points.
It warned that high food costs reduce the money households have available for manufactured goods, education, healthcare and other services, weakening consumer demand and putting pressure on businesses.
The organisation linked persistent food inflation to insecurity in farming communities, inadequate rural infrastructure, high logistics costs, post-harvest losses and weak connections between markets.
It urged the government to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen food distribution networks, invest in storage facilities and rural feeder roads, and address insecurity affecting farming.
CPPE also highlighted regional price differences, noting that urban inflation exceeded rural inflation by 3.18 percentage points. It called for better inter-state transport links, improved market infrastructure and stronger coordination among federal, state and local governments.
Yusuf said the September figures showed progress in stabilising the economy but warned that the gains remained fragile.
“The policy challenge is therefore twofold: sustain disinflation through credible macroeconomic management and address the structural factors that keep production, energy, transportation and food costs elevated,” he said.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X