Nigeria Finds New Markets Next Door as US Imports Tumble

Nigeria’s trade with the rest of the world has changed significantly over the past year, with the country selling more goods to its African neighbours, finding a major new market for fertiliser in the United States, and sharply reducing its dependence on American imports.

The changes, seen in Nigeria’s trade figures from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, point to a shifting trade map rather than simply an increase in the value of goods moving in and out of the country.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s total merchandise trade, which is the value of physical goods exported and imported, rose to ₦41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, its highest level over the five quarters under review.

The figure was 5.61 per cent higher than the corresponding period of 2025 and 19.13 per cent above the ₦34.79 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2026. But the more important story is where Nigeria is now trading, what it is selling and what it is buying.

The country’s trade surplus, which means Nigeria earned more from exports than it spent on imports, widened sharply to ₦12.60 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. This was more than double the ₦7.46 trillion recorded in the same period of 2025.

Exports accounted for 65.2 per cent of Nigeria’s total trade during the quarter, compared with 34.8 per cent for imports.

A major reason for the stronger position was the continued rise in exports and the decline in some major import bills, especially refined petroleum products.

West Africa is becoming a bigger market

Pinnacle Daily analysis shows that the biggest shift in Nigeria’s trade over the past year has been the growing importance of African countries as buyers of Nigerian goods.

Exports to African countries rose from ₦2.97 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 to ₦6.65 trillion in the second quarter of 2026. Africa’s share of Nigeria’s total exports also increased sharply from 13.04 per cent to 24.62 per cent.

The data shows that Togo and Côte d’Ivoire have emerged as particularly important destinations. Exports to Togo rose from ₦811.97 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to ₦1.50 trillion a year later, making the country one of Nigeria’s five largest export destinations.

Exports to Côte d’Ivoire also climbed from ₦408.97 billion to ₦1.22 trillion over the same period.

The change became even clearer in the second quarter of 2026, when Nigeria exported more goods to Togo and Côte d’Ivoire individually than it imported from the US.

Combined, exports to the two West African countries reached ₦2.71 trillion, almost three times the ₦1.01 trillion worth of goods Nigeria imported from the US.

Much of Nigeria’s growing trade with West Africa was driven by petroleum products and other mineral fuels.

Nigeria also recorded some large sales of industrial products, including vessels and floating structures exported to Côte d’Ivoire.

The figures suggest that Nigeria’s neighbours are becoming increasingly important markets for goods produced or supplied from the country.

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America buys more Nigerian fertiliser but sells less to Nigeria

The data reveals that America’s share of Nigeria’s imports fell sharply from 14.12 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 to just 6.97 per cent in the second quarter of 2026.

In value terms, imports from the US dropped from ₦2.16 trillion to ₦1.01 trillion. The fall followed a major shift in Nigeria’s wheat purchases. The US had been a major supplier of Durum wheat, but Nigeria later shifted purchases to countries including Russia, Canada, Poland and Germany.

By the second quarter of 2026, Poland and Germany had become major suppliers of Durum wheat, while the US no longer appeared among the leading sources.

While Nigeria bought less from America, the US suddenly became a major buyer of Nigerian fertiliser. The data shows that Nigeria exported ₦1.07 trillion worth of Urea to the US in the second quarter of 2026 alone.

The surge was remarkable because the value of Urea exported to the US was larger than Nigeria’s total raw material exports worldwide in the second quarter of 2025.

The sharp increase helped push Nigeria’s total raw material exports up by 181.24 per cent, from ₦819.72 billion to ₦2.31 trillion.

It also marked a major change from previous quarters when Brazil had been the main destination for Nigerian Urea.

Oil still dominates, but the export story is becoming broader

Despite these changes, crude oil remains the foundation of Nigeria’s export earnings. Crude oil exports were valued at ₦12.91 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, accounting for 47.79 per cent of total exports.

When other mineral products are added, the category accounted for 87.04 per cent of Nigeria’s exports.

However, the figures show that Nigeria’s trade growth is no longer coming from crude oil alone.

Urea exports have grown strongly, while West African countries are buying more petroleum products and other goods from Nigeria.

The problem is that agriculture, which is often seen as an important alternative to oil, moved in the opposite direction.

Agricultural exports fell by 36.09 per cent to ₦802.99 billion in the second quarter of 2026 from ₦1.26 trillion a year earlier.

Cocoa, Nigeria’s biggest agricultural export, showed particularly sharp swings. Superior-quality cocoa beans rose to almost ₦597 billion in the first quarter of 2026 before falling sharply to ₦58.82 billion in the following quarter.

Sesame seeds remained relatively strong, with China continuing to be the largest buyer, while soya bean exports were largely driven by demand from India.

The sharp changes show that Nigeria’s agricultural export earnings remain heavily affected by seasonal production and a small number of major foreign buyers.

Nigeria is importing less fuel, but still buying heavily from China

On the import side, China has strengthened its position as Nigeria’s dominant supplier. Imports from the country rose from ₦4.96 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 to ₦5.92 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, while its share of Nigeria’s total imports increased from 32.45 per cent to 41.02 per cent.

In simple terms, more than ₦4 out of every ₦10 Nigeria spent on imported goods during the latest quarter went to China. Nigeria’s biggest imports were machinery and transport equipment, which accounted for ₦5.46 trillion, or 37.83 per cent of total imports.

Chemicals and other manufactured goods also took a large share, but one major change, however, was the fall in refined fuel imports, even as petrol imports alone had been valued at ₦2.38 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. By the second quarter of 2026, the value had dropped to ₦952.15 billion. The decline helped reduce Nigeria’s import bill and contributed to the wider trade surplus.

A new trade map is emerging

The biggest lesson from Nigeria’s trade figures over the past year is that the country’s trade relationships are changing faster than the headline numbers suggest.

What the data reveals is that Nigeria is selling more to West Africa, exporting huge volumes of fertiliser to a new major market in the US, buying less from America and becoming even more dependent on China for imports.

At the same time, crude oil remains dominant, while agricultural exports have weakened, revealing that Nigeria’s trade surplus is growing. However, the figures also expose that Nigeria is becoming a stronger exporter, but much of its export earnings still come from oil and other natural resources, while its factories and consumers continue to depend heavily on foreign machinery, chemicals, and manufactured goods.