For the first time in history, the U.S. Labor Department will miss releasing its key employment report for a second consecutive month, as the ongoing government shutdown stretches into its second month, the longest ever recorded.
The data blackout has left economists, investors, and policymakers struggling to gauge the true state of the American economy. Although some private data firms have stepped in, experts warn their figures are limited and cannot replace official government statistics.
September’s job report, originally due October 3, will likely be published once the government reopens, but economists fear the October report may be impossible to produce, since no data was collected during that period.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which conducts two major surveys, one on business payrolls and another on household employment, has been unable to complete either.
According to Ron Hetrick, senior labour economist at Lightcast and former BLS official, it will be “very difficult” to gather household survey data retroactively.
“Companies are probably still tracking payrolls, so that side could be produced. But I don’t think the household survey is possible,” Hetrick said.
Economists also warn that the consumer inflation report may not be released, as it requires in-person data collection, now halted by the shutdown.
Former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen said the gap could create a “hole” in key monthly indicators like unemployment and inflation, making it harder for markets and the Federal Reserve to respond accurately.
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Analysts at Goldman Sachs outlined three potential paths for the BLS to retroactively collect October data, shift the survey window, or skip the month entirely. But with the shutdown dragging on, skipping the October data appears most likely.
If the government reopens soon, the November employment report could still be produced, but until then, America faces an unprecedented blackout of critical economic data just when the markets need it most.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
