Nigeria’s plan to generate up to $200 billion in non-oil export revenue over the next five years is facing serious uncertainty as the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel disrupts global shipping routes and drives up logistics costs.
Exporters and supply-chain experts warn that the crisis in the Middle East is already inflicting losses on Nigerian exporters through higher freight charges, rising insurance premiums, and delays in cargo movement across key maritime corridors.
Chief Executive Officer of the Produce Export Development Alliance, Aiyeoola Adetiloye, said the uncertainty surrounding shipping routes has begun to threaten the viability of Nigeria’s agricultural exports, particularly commodities such as cocoa, sesame seeds and cashews.
Describing the situation as economically devastating, Adetiloye revealed that exporters are already struggling to move goods out of Nigerian ports.
“I have two containers of sesame at the port that are not leaving because of this war,” he said, lamenting the mounting obstacles exporters now face in accessing international markets.
Supply Chain Disruptions Intensify
Director-General of the African Centre for Supply Chain, Obiora Madu, said the conflict is creating ripple effects across global logistics networks, especially for agro-exports that rely heavily on maritime transportation.
According to him, discussions about the impact of the crisis often focus on crude oil exports, but agricultural exports face equally serious risks.
“What we should be looking at is the implication on the supply chain generally. If you talk about exports, people quickly think about oil exports. But what about agro-exports? The implications there are really the implications on the supply chain,” Madu said.
He noted that cargo movement, the backbone of supply-chain operations, is already slowing as insecurity grows along major shipping routes.
“Right now, a lot of cargo is no longer moving. And you know supply chain is all about moving cargo. If cargo can’t move, then you have a big problem,” he said.
Even when shipments proceed, exporters and importers are facing sharply rising operational costs due to higher war-risk insurance.
“For those who are still willing to move cargo, costs are escalating because insurance has increased significantly as a result of the war and its implications,” he added.
Shipping Routes Become Riskier
Security fears around the Red Sea and surrounding waters have also forced shipping companies to avoid traditional routes and adopt longer alternatives.
Madu explained that some vessels are now bypassing the Suez Canal and travelling through the Cape of Good Hope, a far longer route that consumes more fuel and extends travel time.
The change significantly increases shipping costs and places additional strain on global trade operations.
“The implications on the supply chain are huge. One of the major challenges for supply chains this year going forward is geopolitical disruption, and that is exactly where we are right now,” he said.
He added that the disruptions affect both exporters and importers.
“Whether you are importing or exporting, you are affected,” Madu said.
He warned that consumers will eventually bear the burden as businesses transfer higher logistics costs into product prices.
“The implication for you and me as the average buyer will be price increases. If suddenly I have to pay much more because insurance has gone up and ships are taking longer routes, I will have to pass those costs on,” he explained.
Exporters Face Greater Financial Pressure
However, exporters face a tougher challenge because many agricultural export prices are fixed in advance through international contracts.
“It is even easier for importers because they can increase prices and buyers will pay. For exporters, it is more difficult because prices are already fixed,” Madu said.
He explained that most export transactions involve price negotiations long before shipping arrangements are completed, leaving exporters exposed when logistics costs rise suddenly.
“A price was agreed upon when the shipment was arranged. The importer is supposed to pay the freight, but if he cannot find a vessel or the cost becomes too high, he may withdraw from the transaction entirely,” he added.
Trade Routes to Middle East Under Threat
Executive Director and Chief Executive of the Institute of Export Operations and Management, Ofon Udofia, also warned that the escalating conflict is beginning to disrupt trade routes commonly used for Nigerian agricultural exports to Middle Eastern markets.
According to him, growing insecurity across the Gulf region is discouraging shipping lines from operating along some routes.
“The entire Gulf region is gradually becoming a no-go area for vessels. How do you move cargo under such circumstances? It is going to be a very big problem,” Udofia said.
Nigeria exports several agricultural commodities, including cashew, cocoa, sesame seeds, and ginger, to markets across the Middle East and Asia. Prolonged instability could therefore translate into significant export losses.
Udofia said some shipping companies have already reduced or suspended services due to security concerns.
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“As long as the war lingers, most shipping lines are not willing to go in that direction. Even those taking alternative routes are charging far higher freight rates than before. That is a serious threat to exporters,” he said.
He warned that rising freight costs are eroding the competitiveness of Nigerian agricultural products in global markets.
“In terms of the threats we are seeing, freight costs have increased significantly because of the risks involved. This makes it more difficult for exporters to move their products profitably,” Udofia added.
According to him, smaller exporters are likely to suffer the most because they lack the financial capacity to absorb rising logistics costs or withstand prolonged shipping delays.
“I just pray the war will end soon. If it continues for long, exporters will struggle to move goods, and Nigeria’s agricultural export earnings could be seriously impacted,” he said.
Fertiliser Prices Surge
Industry analysts say the crisis also exposes the vulnerability of Nigeria’s export supply chain to geopolitical shocks, particularly disruptions to key maritime trade routes.
Shipping activities around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a major global trade corridor, have already been affected, with more than 100 container ships reportedly stranded due to rising security concerns.
Experts also warn that the conflict could trigger broader disruptions in agricultural production through rising fertiliser prices.
Fertiliser accounts for roughly 25 per cent of agricultural production costs, and analysts estimate that about one-third of global fertiliser trade could be affected by the conflict.
With nearly a quarter of global fertiliser supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, prices are already rising. In parts of the Middle East, the price of urea has reportedly increased by about 19 per cent within a week, raising fears of higher production costs for farmers worldwide.
For Nigerian exporters, the situation is further complicated by strict plant health and market regulations governing fresh produce shipments. These rules often prevent exporters from redirecting cargo to alternative markets when the original destination becomes inaccessible.
Industry watchers warn that if the Middle East conflict persists, Nigeria’s strategy to significantly expand non-oil export earnings could face serious setbacks, underscoring the need for stronger trade resilience and diversified logistics routes.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
