As Nigeria struggles to attract meaningful foreign direct investment (FDI), a Nigerian academic, Dr Nasir—whose recent international study explored how artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT impact investment decisions—says the real threat to growth may lie more in poor governance and inconsistent policy than technology gaps.
In an exclusive interview with Nairametrics, Dr Nasir, a finance researcher with collaborators in the UK and Bulgaria, gave sweeping insights on generative AI’s role in global finance, its potential in Nigeria, and why the Tinubu administration’s economic policies may be pushing investors away.
AI in Finance: Chatbots as Advisors?
Dr. Nasir’s recent research assessed whether generative AI platforms—like ChatGPT, Bing AI, and Gemini—can provide accurate, relevant, and justifiable financial advice for investment decisions in different countries. The team conducted a two-stage study in both the UK, a global financial hub, and Bulgaria, a lower-income European economy.
“We gave these chatbots investment prompts—like how to invest £50 or £1,000—and asked financial experts to evaluate the responses,” he explained. “In the UK, we found that the chatbot outputs were significantly influenced by the quality of the prompts. But in Bulgaria, the AI’s suggestions were more generic and less reliable.”
The study highlights the limits and possibilities of AI as a financial assistant—especially in markets with varied data quality or digital literacy.
Replicating the Model in Nigeria
Can such a study be replicated in Nigeria? Dr Nasir believes it not only can but must.
“Yes, absolutely. But outcomes would depend on the sophistication of Nigerian investors, the quality of local data, and language clarity,” he said.
He pointed out a critical issue: most Nigerians don’t invest in certain key sectors, like insurance, due to lack of trust, data access, or public awareness—gaps AI tools could help bridge.
GenAI in Governance: A Budget Watchdog
Beyond finance, Dr Nasir believes generative AI could revolutionise public sector efficiency—particularly in exposing fraud and mismanagement in government budgets.
He cited the 2025 Nigerian budget as an example: “The budget has 2,100 line items and 285 pages. GenAI could scan and flag padded or duplicated items within minutes—something NGOs like BudgIT take months to do manually.”
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Dr Nasir argued that deploying AI in such contexts would empower lawmakers and citizens with real-time insights, support fiscal transparency, and reduce leakages.
“Instead of N300 billion going to boreholes and streetlights with no lasting impact, GenAI could help propose smarter alternatives. AI won’t replace decision-makers, but it will certainly improve how decisions are made,” he added.
AI Cannot Replace Human Advisors—Yet
While acknowledging AI’s growing role in finance, Dr Nasir was firm on one point: “You can’t beat experience.”
He sees GenAI as a supplementary tool, not a replacement. “It’s there to assist brokers, not override them. It can analyse data and identify patterns, but it lacks the human capacity to weigh complex risks and interpret non-quantitative variables.”
Tinubu’s FDI Record: “The Data Speaks for Itself”
Asked to assess the Tinubu administration’s performance in attracting foreign capital, Dr Nasir pulled no punches.
“Nigeria attracted just $1.08 billion in FDI recently, compared to Egypt’s $14 billion,” he said. “Even smaller economies like Kenya are doing better. Why? Because Nigeria’s business environment remains too hostile.”
He compared current figures with past administrations. “Under Yar’Adua, Nigeria attracted $6 billion in 2007 and $8.2 billion in 2008. Jonathan hit $8 billion in 2011. Even Buhari managed $3 billion in his first two years. Tinubu has attracted less than $2 billion in nearly 25 months. The problem is policy inconsistency and weak investor confidence.”
“Exporting Capital” Isn’t the Same as FDI
On arguments that Nigeria should shift focus from attracting FDI to exporting private capital through firms like Dangote Group, Dr Nasir offered a caution.
“Supporting Dangote is fine, but running a business is not the same as running a country,” he said. “FDI is more than just money; it’s about confidence in your system. Saudi Arabia doesn’t beg for FDI—they attract it because they offer political and economic stability.”
Exchange Rate Unification: Right Idea, Wrong Timing?
Dr Nasir was also critical of the controversial unification of Nigeria’s exchange rates—a policy the Tinubu government argued would enhance transparency.
“Yes, they unified the rate. But what did it achieve? It significantly devalued the naira and worsened production costs in an import-dependent economy,” he argued. “Investors want stability and predictability. The naira today is not stable, and that’s bad for business.”
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He dismissed official narratives that the naira’s current level reflects its “true value”.
“That’s a sugar-coated term,” he said. “The value of any currency is ultimately based on confidence and trust. If you destroy that, no amount of unification will help.”
The Bottom Line: Nigeria Must Fix the Fundamentals
At the heart of Dr Nasir’s analysis is a clear message: generative AI may be reshaping finance globally, but for Nigeria to benefit—from tech or FDI—it must fix its policy fundamentals.
“You can have all the tools—AI, digital platforms, local capital—but if your economic governance remains unstable, investors will look elsewhere,” he warned.
Sunday Michael Ogwu is a Nigerian journalist and editor of Pinnacle Daily. He is known for his work in business and economic reporting. He has held editorial roles in prominent Nigerian media outlets, where he has focused on economic policy, financial markets, and developmental issues affecting Nigeria and Africa more broadly.
