The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday, July 8, has raised fresh tensions in the Middle East and swiftly caused a return of volatility in global energy markets.
This has seen Brent crude surging from about $71 earlier in the week to almost $80 per barrel.
According to market data published by Oilprice.com, Brent Crude, the international benchmark, rose to $78.42 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit $73.71 on Thursday, July 9, 2026. For Brent Crude, this reflects a spike of over 6 per cent in 48 hours, representing the biggest two-day jump since April.
This escalation reverses a period of relative calm and has reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into the market.
The fragile truce brokered on June 17, 2026, which had briefly brought Brent crude down from its conflict high of about $120 per barrel, crashed following military exchanges.
The renewed conflict was triggered after the U.S. accused Iran of attacking three commercial vessels near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
In response, the U.S. military launched strikes on over 80 targets in Iran. Speaking during the NATO summit in Istanbul, President Trump declared the temporary ceasefire with Iran “over,” stating he no longer wanted to engage with the Iranian leadership.
This was followed by the U.S. revoking waivers that had allowed Iran to sell limited amounts of oil, effectively blocking a significant amount of crude from returning to the global market. Iran has since retaliated with strikes on U.S. military sites in the region.
Market Impact
Analysts note that with the development, the market’s focus has abruptly returned to the risk of supply disruptions from the Middle East, overshadowing previous expectations that Iranian oil would soon flow freely.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, and any escalation that threatens shipping there can quickly alter supply expectations. While prices remain below the highs seen during the peak of the conflict earlier this year, the latest developments have revived concerns about potentially higher energy costs and the likely impact on inflation and the economic outlook generally.
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According to a Bloomberg report, only one tanker was seen moving a long the waterway on Thursday morning. It said this is contrary to about 14 commodity-carrying vessels that crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
Data from Kepler, indicated that in the past three weeks following the ceasefire, the Strait has recorded an average of 34 tanker crossings per day, peaking at 59 on June 24.
If tensions continue to escalate and effectively restrict Iranian exports, prices may climb further. However, the sustainability of the rally will depend on whether the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates or becomes contained.
For Nigeria, this sudden price reversal presents a sharp double-edged sword: a potential boost to government revenue paired with a direct threat to domestic fuel pricing stability.
With global Brent prices climbing back to $80, expectations for a drop in local fuel prices are effectively frozen.
The recent drop in crude oil prices had led to demand for lower pump prices of petroleum product. However, the ongoing price rally has reversed the trend,
Victor Ezeja is a Nigerian journalist skilled in producing insightful news analyses, feature stories, and interviews that simplify complex issues and drive informed public discourse. His work combines rigorous research, balanced reporting, and compelling storytelling to highlight developments shaping industries and society. Victor, who holds a Master's Degree in Mass Communication, specializes in energy, aviation, business, and economic reporting. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X