Global crude oil prices have risen again as energy markets react to renewed uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, putting hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz in limbo.
Brent Crude, the international benchmark, rose to $85.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit $79.58 per barrel on Monday, August 10, 2026, according to Oilprice.com.
The rise came after both benchmarks fell more than 7 per cent last week on expectations that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal that could resolve the five-month-old conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about a fifth of the world’s oil passed through the waterway daily.
At the core has been a fundamental disagreement over who controls this vital waterway, leaving the market on edge. Prolonged disruptions and low tanker traffic have squeezed effective global supply, leading to higher oil prices and skyrocketing fuel prices in domestic markets.
While US President Donald Trump has stated that talks with Iran are ongoing, Iranian officials have repeatedly denied that any negotiations with the US are currently taking place. This disconnect has eroded market confidence in a quick resolution.
Iran’s Demands and Conditions
Tehran has maintained that the agreement implementation must include an end to military threats, sanctions relief, and compensation, while Washington insists on unconditional free navigation without Iranian control over key corridors.
The peace pact being mediated by Oman, would lead to establishing new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, but can only be used once the US meets Tehran’s conditions and the waterway is reopened, said the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, according to a report by Iran’s Mehr news agency.
The stalemate in negotiations affects oil prices through a combination of actual supply disruptions and market sentiment.
Market observers have said that the conflict has directly reduced the global oil supply. Since the war began, the market has experienced a deficit estimated at over 2.6 billion barrels, equivalent to nearly a month of global production. For instance, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from an average of 130 ships per day to only 6 on some days. This is a physical shortage, not just a market fear.
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Analysts noted that the ongoing uncertainty has forced traders to price in a “geopolitical risk premium.” Even when there is hope for a deal, oil prices remain elevated because the fundamental issues remain unsolved. Major financial institutions have raised their price forecasts, reflecting the view that the conflict will not be resolved quickly.
Market Volatility
The oil market has become highly sensitive to any headline about the negotiations. Announcements hinting at a potential deal have caused temporary price drops, only for prices to rebound when those hopes fail to materialize, creating a volatile situation.
The uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz comes as Iran-aligned Houthi rebels announced on Sunday that it launched attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facility.
The rebel group has reportedly also launched attacks on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, targeting vessels carrying oil and gas supplies.
While the developments in recent times have sustained uncertainty over the security of oil shipments through the region, causing oil markets to remain volatile, the spike so far has remained lower than the $126 per barrel levels seen earlier during the war.
Victor Ezeja is a Nigerian journalist skilled in producing insightful news analyses, feature stories, and interviews that simplify complex issues and drive informed public discourse. His work combines rigorous research, balanced reporting, and compelling storytelling to highlight developments shaping industries and society. Victor, who holds a Master's Degree in Mass Communication, specializes in energy, aviation, business, and economic reporting. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X