Shipping data shows that Indian diesel exports to West Africa have reached a record high, driven by the European Union’s new restrictions on fuel refined from Russian crude oil. At the same time, Turkey’s diesel exports to the EU have slowed, reshaping intercontinental oil flows and forcing refiners to seek new markets.
The European Union now requires that diesel exporters prove their fuel was not processed from Russian crude within 60 days prior to loading. The measure closes a loophole that previously allowed products derived from Russian crude to enter the bloc via third countries.
Brussels introduced the ban as part of its strategy to punish Moscow over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The policy has forced India, previously the third-largest diesel exporter to the EU, to redirect its shipments.
“We think the most likely ‘re-shuffle’ would be for more Indian diesel to go into Africa and free up more Middle Eastern supply for Europe,” said Clare Morris, analyst at Energy Aspects.
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Kpler and Vortexa data show that India stopped exporting diesel to the EU in January due to the ban and sent record amounts to West Africa instead. In December 2025, exports were on track to reach 155,000 barrels per day (bpd), while January shipments were on pace for 84,000 bpd.
By contrast, Turkey’s diesel exports to the EU have declined sharply. January shipments averaged around 45,000 bpd, down from 87,000 bpd a month in 2025.
The ban affects Turkey’s biggest refineries differently. Star refinery, owned by Azerbaijan’s state-owned Socar, continued importing Russian crude in January, while Tupras’ Izmir plant stopped Urals imports in November, although its Izmit plant continued processing Russian crude.
Russian Crude Exposure
Russian crude made up 30% of India’s seaborne imports in 2025, while it accounted for 48% of Turkey’s seaborne imports last year, according to Kpler. Refiners that cannot segregate Russian crude must halt EU-bound diesel shipments.
In India, Reliance has been the largest diesel exporter to the EU in recent years. In Turkey, Star refinery had been the biggest EU supplier.
“Turkey isn’t naturally very long on diesel; it imports Russian diesel for domestic use and sells locally-produced diesel into Europe. The new EU loophole ban should curb that activity,” Morris explained.
The EU policy has already caused shifts in global diesel flows. Fuel imports from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries to the EU reached a three-month high in January as Europe diversified supply ahead of the ban.
The changes illustrate how EU sanctions are reshaping global oil markets, creating new opportunities in Africa while disrupting previously lucrative export routes to Europe.
With Indian diesel shipments hitting all-time highs in West Africa, local fuel markets are set to experience increased supply, potentially easing shortages and stabilizing prices. Analysts see this as a long-term realignment of global diesel flows, with West Africa emerging as a critical market for Indian refiners.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
