Nigeria has continued to record shortfalls in crude oil production output, reaching 31.6 million barrels in the first four months of 2026, according to a Pinnacle Daily analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Production Below Budget Targets
The NUPRC data revealed a persistent gap between projected and actual oil output from January to April 2026.
The 2026 federal budget has a target of 1.84 million per day (bpd), but the NUPRC data reflects significant shortfalls from the target across the months.
Out of 220.8 million barrels expected production for four months, in line with the 1.84 million barrels per day target, the nation recorded approximately 189.2 million barrels of crude oil and condensate production, reflecting a shortfall of 31.6 million barrels between January and April.
According to the NUPRC data, crude oil and condensate output was 1.62 million bpd in January. It dropped to 1.48 million bpd in February, rose to 1.54 million bpd in March, and rose to 1.66 million bpd in April.
This means the nation produced 50.2 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, and declined to 41.44 million barrels in February. It rose slightly to 47.74 million barrels in March and 49.8 million barrels in April, bringing cumulative output of 189.2 million barrels for the four months.
Based on the Federal Government’s target in the 2026 budget, the country was expected to produce 57.04 million barrels in January, 51.52 million barrels in February, 57.04 million barrels in March and 55.2 million barrels in April to reach 220.8 million barrels in the period under review.
Missing the Global Price Windfall
The production gap is coming at a time when global oil prices have experienced a significant surge, giving oil-producing countries an opportunity to earn more revenue. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which led to supply disruption as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pushed up oil prices in the international market in the last two months. The disruption led to a crude oil price spike, reaching a peak of nearly $120 a barrel. Before the hostilities, which started late February, crude oil prices were hovering around $70 per barrel.
With Nigeria’s 2026 budget anchored on a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, the country was expected to benefit from the windfall.
However, the country’s inability to ramp up production in line with rising prices made it unable to maximise revenue.
Analysts have noted that higher crude oil prices enable producers to maximise revenue, especially when supported by increased output volume.
Revenue Shortfall and Financial Impact
With the production shortfall, Nigeria is estimated to have lost about ₦4 trillion.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) show that crude oil prices, specifically the Bonny Light (a Nigerian crude oil grade), were $68.05 per barrel in January, $72.33 per barrel in February, $106.09 per barrel in March and $126.71 per barrel in April 2026. This means an average of $93.29 per barrel in the first four months of 2026.
The sharpest jump came in April 2026, when crude prices climbed to $126.71 per barrel — nearly double the level recorded in January 2026. However, actual production and export performance failed to meet expectations.
At an average price of $93.29, the 31.6 million barrels shortfall means the country lost about $2.947 billion. At the current exchange rate of ₦1,375 per dollar, this translates to approximately ₦4.05 trillion.
The apex bank data showed that export volume has been fluctuating since the year began. It stood at 1.01 million barrels per day in January, dropped to 0.86 million barrels per day in February, rose to 0.93 million barrels per day in March and 1.04 million barrels per day in April.
Structural Challenges
With the output level, Nigeria’s ambition to ramp up production to 2 million barrels per day has remained elusive.
The performance highlights the widening gap between policy ambitions and operational realities despite renewed efforts by the government, the NUPRC and the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to boost production.
The country has consistently set aggressive targets, including plans to reach 2 million barrels per day in the near term and hit 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
Although output occasionally improves, the underlying weaknesses in the sector continue to drag production below both government targets and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota.
Nigeria’s crude oil production drop has been attributed to persistent crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational disruptions at major facilities.
There was a major shutdown for turnaround maintenance at the Bonga field, which significantly contributed to the country’s output drop in February. NUPRC data showed that crude oil output from the Bonga terminal dropped to 56,625 barrels in February from 3,701,453 barrels in January 2026. It, however, increased to 2,851,669 barrels in March and 3,063,742 barrels in April, but still below the January output level.
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Expressing concerns about the revenue losses due to production shortfalls, the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) recently noted that Nigeria missed a major economic opportunity to capitalise on the recent surge in global oil prices triggered by the ongoing Iran war.
AERE, in a statement signed by its chairman, Dele Oye, said that if Nigeria were hitting its full production capacity, the price surge would translate to an annualized windfall of up to ₦28.3 trillion. Instead, the country is forfeiting billions of dollars in potential earnings because it doesn’t have the volume to sell on the open market.
“When the Iran war sent oil prices soaring past $100 per barrel, many nations rushed to harvest the windfall. But Nigeria, the giant of Africa, found itself like the proverbial goat standing in front of palm leaves yet chewing stones. The paradox is painful: oil is expensive, but our pockets remain empty,” Oye stated.
“On paper, Nigeria should be smiling to the bank. Brent crude now trades at $102–$114 per barrel, far above our budget benchmark of $64.85. That’s a premium of $37–$49 per barrel, translating to a theoretical ₦28.3 trillion annual windfall. But reality bites harder than arithmetic,” he added.
He said that with the widening production gap, even NNPC’s promise to add 100,000 barrels is like a “drop in the ocean.”
He called for efforts towards fixing production challenges to increase output and also build strategic reserves to stabilize supply during emergencies.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in Mass Communication. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X