Defence and security expert, Dr. Steve Okwori, has said the evacuation of Nigerians from South Africa could pose fresh national security threat id done without proper profiling and reintegration.
Okwori stated this while reacting to the news of Nigeria receiving returnees from South Africa affected by renewed xenophobic attacks and anti-immigration protests targeting African migrants.
Following recent xenophobic attacks on foreign nationals in several parts of South Africa, which led to widespread job losses, the Federal Government took steps evacuate over 500 Nigerians.
On Thursday, June 11, the first batch of 258 Nigerians arrived at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport Lagos, in a flight operated by Air Peace airline.
The evacuation reflects a broader continental pattern, with countries such as Ghana and Malawi also repatriating citizens affected by the unrest. South African authorities have linked the protests to deepening economic hardship and unemployment, which continue to fuel resentment against migrants.
According to Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the evacuation process is still ongoing, with more citizens undergoing screening for possible repatriation as tensions persist in affected areas.
While framed as a humanitarian intervention, the development has reopened debate on Nigeria’s readiness to absorb returnees at a time of economic pressure and persistent insecurity.
Okwori: “Evacuation Is Only the Beginning”
Dr. Okwori said the return of the 258 Nigerians must be understood beyond humanitarian optics and managed within a broader national security and reintegration framework.
He stressed that evacuation represents only the first stage of response, while reintegration determines the long-term outcome.
According to him, without structured support systems, returnees risk economic frustration that could deepen vulnerability in already strained communities. He warned that sudden displacement—even when protective—can create secondary pressure points if absorption mechanisms are weak or poorly coordinated.
Okwori noted that many of the returnees had built stable livelihoods in South Africa before the xenophobic violence forced their departure, making reintegration into Nigeria’s current economic environment significantly more challenging without targeted intervention.
He also raised concerns about the nature of current entry screening processes, describing them as largely limited to health checks and basic identification, without deeper assessment of long-term reintegration needs.
“The government does not really know their mindset beyond the screening they did health-wise. Some of them have left everything they had in South Africa, and they are coming back into uncertainty,” he said.
Economic Displacement and Rising Survival Pressure
Okwori cautioned that many returnees may have lost their livelihoods entirely, leaving them exposed to severe economic disruption upon return.
He warned that in the absence of structured reintegration systems, affected individuals could struggle to access legitimate means of survival in an already constrained economy.
“When people suddenly lose their source of income and there is no support system, they become vulnerable to survival-driven choices,” he noted.
He added that Nigeria’s current economic conditions—marked by unemployment, inflationary pressure, and informal labour dominance—further heighten this vulnerability, particularly in urban centres.
Kidnapping Risk and Criminal Survival Pathways
One of the most sensitive concerns raised by the expert is the possibility of some returnees drifting into criminal survival pathways if neglected.
Okwori warned that kidnapping has become one of the most financially attractive criminal alternatives in Nigeria’s current insecurity environment, largely due to its perceived speed of financial returns compared to other illicit activities.
“Some of them, if not properly absorbed, might look at survival options, and kidnapping has become one of the quickest ways criminals now get money,” he said.
However, he stressed that this outcome is not inevitable, but a preventable risk directly linked to the absence of structured reintegration and economic support systems.
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Dr. Okwori emphasised that reintegration should no longer be treated as a social welfare concern alone, but as a core component of national security planning.
He explained that large-scale return movements place additional pressure on already fragile absorption systems, which can have ripple effects on community stability if not properly managed.
According to him, modern security strategy must go beyond border control and evacuation logistics to include structured post-return management, where absorption and integration are central to national safety outcomes.
While cautioning against alarmist interpretations, he noted that return movements do not automatically generate insecurity. However, risks increase when responses are reactive, fragmented, or disconnected from coordinated reintegration systems.
He therefore called for stronger collaboration between security agencies, social welfare institutions, and labour and employment structures to ensure a coherent national response.
“Reintegration Must Be Strategic, Not Symbolic”
Okwori warned that the success of the evacuation should not be measured by repatriation numbers alone, but by how effectively returnees are reintegrated into society.
He cautioned that without structured frameworks, some returnees could experience prolonged economic instability after losing livelihoods abroad, increasing exposure to informal or illicit survival pathways.
In Nigeria’s current insecurity environment, he noted, such vulnerabilities can quickly translate into broader social risks where institutional support is absent or ineffective.
However, he stressed that these outcomes remain preventable with deliberate and coordinated policy intervention.
He further linked the challenge to long-standing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s security ecosystem, including poor intelligence coordination, porous borders, and inconsistent institutional performance. According to him, insecurity is driven not only by criminal networks but also by systemic inefficiencies and delayed responses.
Okwori maintained that while the evacuation is necessary, its true impact depends on what follows. He urged authorities to integrate reintegration into national security planning rather than treating it as a secondary welfare issue.
“Insecurity management does not end at evacuation or screening. It begins there,” he said.
He concluded that Nigeria’s ability to absorb returnees without creating new social or economic pressure points will serve as a critical test of institutional resilience and long-term security planning capacity.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.