Three years into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria’s economy tells a story of sharp reforms, painful adjustments and an unfinished struggle to convert macroeconomic stability into broader prosperity.
Since taking office in May 2023, Tinubu’s government has pursued two defining economic reforms — fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification — aimed at stabilising public finances and correcting long-standing distortions in the economy.
The result, three years later, is a mixed scorecard, Pinnacle Daily’s analysis shows.
The economy is recording stronger growth, higher foreign reserves, lower food inflation and expanding trade volumes.
But these gains coexist with soaring fuel prices, a sharply weaker naira, rising public debt and persistent cost pressures on households and businesses.
Economic data suggest that Tinubu’s three years of administration have been less about delivering immediate prosperity and more about restructuring an economy widely seen as unsustainable at the point of transition.
Data: Growth Improves, But the Costs Are Heavy
The clearest sign of economic change under Tinubu is in fuel pricing.
Petrol prices have risen from ₦238.11 per litre when the administration assumed office to ₦1,227.25 after three years. Diesel prices have climbed from ₦844.28 to ₦1,762.50.
These increases have reshaped transport costs, production expenses, business operations and household budgets.
The exchange rate has undergone a similarly dramatic shift. The naira, which traded at ₦461 per dollar in May 2023, weakened to ₦1,444.87/$ three years later.
For businesses dependent on imports, foreign obligations and raw materials, the weaker currency has altered pricing models, operating costs and investment calculations.
Yet the macroeconomic picture also shows signs of stabilisation.
Food inflation declined from 22.41 per cent to 16.06 per cent, while Nigeria’s foreign reserves strengthened from $35.09 billion to $49.26 billion, improving the country’s external liquidity position.
Economic activity has also accelerated. The GDP growth improved from 2.51 per cent at the start of the administration to 3.89 per cent after three years.
Total trade expanded sharply from ₦66.83 trillion to ₦152.47 trillion, signalling stronger commercial activity.
But stronger headline indicators have come with a heavier fiscal burden.
Nigeria’s public debt stock rose from ₦97.34 trillion to ₦159.28 trillion over the three years.
Debt service payments increased from $3.50 billion to $5.15 billion, while debt per capita widened from ₦427,155 to ₦670,568.
The figures capture the competing realities of Tinubu’s economic journey: stronger macroeconomic indicators alongside rising living costs, fiscal strain and a heavier debt profile.
Yusuf: Tinubu’s First Task Was Economic Rescue, Not Growth
For Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, the administration’s economic performance can only be understood against the backdrop of the conditions it inherited.
According to Yusuf, a renowned economist, Tinubu took office when Nigeria was battling deep fiscal, foreign exchange and macroeconomic vulnerabilities.
READ ALSO:
- Nigeria’s Economy to Grow by 3.93% in Q2 Despite Global Risks
- Nigeria’s Economic Stability Improves in Q1, but Rising Costs Threaten Outlook — CPPE
- Ex-CBN Deputy Governor, Bala Bello, Hails Tinubu for Appointing him as Economic Adviser
- Media Rights Groups Condemn VP Shettima’s Claims of Zero Journalist Harassment
- World Bank Import Push Threatens Nigeria’s Gains- Centre
“The administration assumed office at a time when the economy was facing profound macroeconomic, fiscal and foreign exchange vulnerabilities,” Yusuf said.
He argued that the economy inherited by the government was marked by acute foreign exchange illiquidity, declining investor confidence, pressure on trade finance and a subsidy regime that had become a major source of fiscal leakage and economic distortion.
Against that backdrop, Yusuf views fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification as the core pillars of the administration’s stabilisation strategy.
“The first three years of the Tinubu administration were fundamentally about rescuing the economy from the brink and restoring macroeconomic stability,” he said.
According to Yusuf, the reforms addressed structural distortions that previous administrations repeatedly postponed.
The removal of fuel subsidy, he said, halted a major drain on public finances and created the basis for a more sustainable petroleum market. Exchange rate unification, meanwhile, reduced arbitrage opportunities, improved transparency and strengthened price discovery in the foreign exchange market.
But Yusuf acknowledged that the reforms came with steep social costs.
“The immediate consequence of the reforms was a significant inflationary shock,” he said.
Higher energy costs, rising transport and logistics expenses, increased production costs and imported inflation created what he described as a severe cost-of-living challenge.
“The welfare impact was considerable. Real incomes declined, poverty conditions worsened and the cost-of-living crisis emerged as one of the most difficult consequences of the reform process,” Yusuf said.
He argued that there is evidence of macroeconomic recovery, pointing to stronger reserves, improved investor confidence, exchange-rate moderation since 2025, gains in the capital market and the emergence of domestic refining capacity.
He noted that Nigeria experienced eleven consecutive months of disinflation from early 2025 through February 2026 before geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States and Israel disrupted the trend.
But for Yusuf, stabilisation alone is not enough. He stressed, “However, stabilisation is only the beginning.”
“The next phase of reforms must focus on translating macroeconomic stability into inclusive growth through accelerated investment, improved productivity, stronger energy security, security of life and property, enhanced food security, industrial competitiveness and poverty reduction.”
Yusuf further argued that the reform agenda will be judged not by reserves, exchange-rate performance or stock market gains but by jobs, incomes and living standards.
“Macroeconomic stability may rescue an economy from the brink, but inclusive prosperity is what secures public confidence,” he maintained.
Debt Debate: Uwaleke Says Borrowing Is Not the Problem
One of the most contentious aspects of Tinubu’s three-year economic record is the rising debt profile.
While Nigeria’s public debt increased sharply, an economist and Director of the Institute of Capital Market Studies at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Uche Uwaleke, argued that the real issue is not borrowing itself but how borrowed funds are deployed.
“On the debt issue, again, I keep saying that debt in itself is not a bad thing. What is important is what it is used for,” he stated.
However, Uwaleke expressed concern about how government borrowing has been utilised.
“Last year, for example, we had between January and September—according to the Budget Implementation Report—the government borrowed ₦12 trillion, out of which just ₦3 trillion was used for capital projects. So that’s the kind of, you know, something we should avoid.”
Beyond debt management, Uwaleke questioned Nigeria’s social intervention strategy.
“On the issue of social safety nets, I think they are impactful. I think the government should take a second look at this cash transfer scheme. I think the government should take a second look and discontinue it where possible, and rather focus on ensuring that money is put in the hands of people in a productive manner,” he suggested.
He proposed a grassroots development approach centred on local government economic activity.
“The FG, can raise ₦774 billion and give each local government ₦1 billion,” he said.
According to Uwaleke, the funds could support vocational and digital skill centres managed through independent implementation structures involving traditional rulers, youths and women.
“That is one way you can stimulate economic activity in the local communities, and you’ll find that this issue of crime rate will reduce,” he said.
From Stabilisation to Shared Prosperity
Three years after Tinubu assumed office, the debate around his economic management is shifting.
The first phase focused largely on stabilisation — correcting distortions, rebuilding confidence and preventing deeper macroeconomic deterioration.
The next challenge, however, is more difficult.
The central question is whether the administration can turn macroeconomic improvements into tangible welfare gains for ordinary Nigerians.
The data show progress in growth, reserves, trade and inflation moderation. But they also reveal stubborn pressures in living costs, debt accumulation and purchasing power.
As Yusuf put it, the future of the reform programme will depend not only on economic stabilisation but on whether it delivers “jobs, incomes, living standards and the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians.”
After three years, Tinubu’s economic record remains a study in contrasts: an economy showing signs of recovery, but still searching for the inclusive prosperity needed to sustain public confidence in reform.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X