Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.93 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, CardinalStone Research has projected.
The projection will be supported by stronger oil production and the resilience of the non-oil sector despite rising global geopolitical tensions.
In its latest review of Nigeria’s Q1 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) report, the research firm said growth expectations for Africa’s largest economy remain “largely biased to the upside.”
This is even as inflationary pressures and energy market disruptions continue to pose risks.
The forecast comes after Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slightly below the 4.07 per cent recorded in the previous quarter and under analysts’ expectations of 4.00 per cent.
CardinalStone said the economy showed resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with both oil and non-oil sectors remaining in positive territory.
The non-oil economy continued to lead growth, supported mainly by services, trade, financial services and ICT.
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According to the firm, the ICT sector remained a major growth driver, benefiting from continued expansion in telecom and internet subscriptions as well as the delayed gains from the 2025 telecommunications tariff increase.
The trade sector also strengthened during the quarter, helped by exchange rate stability and easing inflation pressures.
However, CardinalStone warned that the sector’s strong momentum could face pressure in the second quarter because of rising energy prices.
Financial services maintained positive growth, which the report linked to increased credit creation in the private sector.
Manufacturing also improved sharply, growing by 3.29 per cent from 1.13 per cent in the previous quarter, largely driven by higher domestic refining activity.
But some sectors faced headwinds as the research firm noted that transportation activity was weakened by higher domestic petrol prices, which were driven by global energy shocks linked to the ongoing Middle East crisis.
Agriculture growth also slowed to 3.15 per cent in the first quarter from 4.00 per cent in the preceding quarter.
On the oil side, growth moderated as crude production fell to 1.55 million barrels per day from 1.58 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.
CardinalStone attributed the decline to operational problems cited by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, including outages on the Trans Forcados Pipeline, start-up difficulties at the Stardeep Agbami facilities, delayed completion of the Sterling Oguali flow station and production constraints at Enyie wells.
The firm also noted a 38-day unplanned outage affecting Seplat’s onshore portfolio during the quarter.
CardinalStone anticipated that improved oil output could support stronger growth because some of the production issues from the first quarter have been resolved.
“Growth expectations for Nigeria still remain largely biased to the upside,” the firm said, adding that “the non-oil sector output will have to weather an uptick in inflation stemming from the ongoing geopolitical tension.”
“Nonetheless, we expect sustained momentum given the sector’s resilient nature. Overall, the economy is expected to grow by 3.93% YoY in Q2’26,” CardinalStone added.
Pinnacle Daily earlier reported that Nigeria’s economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, but was higher than the 3.13 per cent growth posted in the first quarter of 2025.
In nominal terms, the economy was valued at ₦110.79 trillion in Q1 2026, lower than the ₦122.81 trillion recorded in Q4 2025.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X