By David Okon
Nigeria’s economic story in 2025 was not defined by a single reform or headline moment. It was shaped by sequencing. A deliberate effort to stabilise the macroeconomy, restore institutional credibility, and align security, fiscal, and market policy toward growth.
At the centre of this sequencing stood the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, whose consistent framing of security, capital mobilisation, and reform discipline increasingly shaped how investors interpreted Nigeria’s direction.
Rebuilding the Economic Baseline.
The year opened with a focus on repairing the analytical foundations of economic planning. In early 2025, Nigeria completed a long-delayed rebasing of its Gross Domestic Product to a 2019 base year.
The technical exercise, led by the National Bureau of Statistics, expanded the measured contribution of services, ICT, and the informal economy.
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The rebasing placed nominal GDP at approximately ₦372.8 trillion, equivalent to about $240 to $250 billion, offering policymakers and investors a more accurate picture of scale and structure.
This reset mattered. It framed fiscal choices that followed, including tighter expenditure controls, tax administration reforms, and closer coordination with monetary authorities.
By the fourth quarter of 2025, inflation, which had exceeded 24 per cent earlier in the year, began a steady descent, reaching about 14.45 per cent by November.
Foreign reserves strengthened toward $47 billion, reinforcing external buffers and signalling improved balance of payments management. These trends were echoed in 2025 outlooks from multilateral institutions, including the World Bank and Afreximbank.
From Stabilisation to Confidence.
By mid-year, the reform narrative shifted from stabilisation to confidence. Nowhere was this clearer than in capital markets. The Nigerian Exchange closed 2025 as one of Africa’s strongest-performing bourses, with the All Share Index up about 49 per cent by late December.
Total market capitalisation across equities, debt, and exchange-traded funds approached ₦150 trillion, driven by strong corporate earnings, bank recapitalisation, and new listings. According to the chairman of the NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, the rally reflected renewed investor trust in market fundamentals.
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Banking reform played a pivotal role. As part of recapitalisation efforts designed to strengthen credit transmission and financial stability, Nigerian banks raised an estimated ₦2.5 trillion in fresh capital by December 2025 through rights issues, private placements, and public offers.
Filings approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission showed that stronger balance sheets helped fuel the market rally and underscored the link between prudential reform and investor confidence.
Debt markets told a similar story. Between April and October 2025, companies raised more than ₦753 billion through commercial paper issuances across manufacturing, energy, and agriculture.
SEC Director General Emomotimi Agama described the figures as evidence of confidence in Nigeria’s regulatory framework and market architecture.
Landmark transactions, including a ₦500 billion climate-linked special purpose vehicle and a ₦200 billion Elektron Finance bond, pointed to a growing appetite for infrastructure and sustainable finance.
Corporate Performance as Confirmation.
Corporate earnings reinforced the macro signal. MTN Nigeria Communications Plc delivered one of the most striking turnarounds of the year.
In the first nine months of 2025, the company reported revenues of ₦3.73 trillion, up 57 per cent year on year, and profit after tax of about ₦750 billion, reversing prior losses.
Capital expenditure exceeded ₦565 billion in the first half alone, signalling confidence in Nigeria’s digital future and the policy direction of the telecoms sector.
Other blue-chip firms also posted strong results. Dangote Cement reported profit after tax exceeding ₦520 billion, reinforcing the sense that reform was translating into corporate resilience rather than contraction.
The FMCG Rebound
Nigeria’s fast-moving consumer goods sector began to reflect macroeconomic stabilisation as well. After years of losses driven by foreign exchange volatility and inflation, major FMCG firms recorded a rebound in 2025 as currency conditions improved.
According to NielsenIQ, the sector posted 54.1 per cent value growth in 2025, up from 34.3 per cent in 2024.
Consumer demand lifted Nigeria’s FMCG market to an estimated value of $25 billion, making it the second largest in Africa after South Africa. Nigeria’s growth rate outpaced regional peers, with Egypt expanding by 23.1 percent, Morocco by 7.6 percent, and Kenya by 5.5 percent.
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At the company level, Nestlé Nigeria returned to profitability, posting an ₦88.4 billion pre-tax profit in the first half of 2025, supported by revenue growth and more stable cost structures.
Market data reflected the recovery. FMCG stocks delivered strong performances on the Exchange, with several recording returns above 100 per cent over the year.
Lagos-based consumer analyst Dr Tayo Ajayi noted that Nigerian consumers adapt their spending patterns rather than stop spending altogether, sustaining the sector even under pressure.
Energy, infrastructure, and scale
Energy and industrial policy formed the next layer of reform. The Dangote Refinery, operating at 650,000 barrels per day, confirmed plans to expand capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.
Analysts say the move could significantly reduce fuel imports, ease pressure on foreign exchange, and strengthen the trade balance.
At the national level, NNPC Ltd continued its post-commercialisation reset. Group Chief Executive Bayo Ojulari said oil production rose from about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to over 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025.
He highlighted the strategic importance of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline in unlocking industrial growth and said NNPC’s focus for 2026 would include lifting output further and supporting President Bola Tinubu’s directive to attract $30 billion in investments by 2030.
Infrastructure and Future-facing Sectors
Progress continued on the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, with approximately $1.126 billion secured for Phase 1 Section 2. President Tinubu described the financing as a major achievement and reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to funding critical economic infrastructure.
Port decentralisation plans, digital skills programmes under the ministry of communications, innovation and digital economy, including the 3 million technical talent initiative, and the growth of the creative economy further broadened the reform base. Film, music, fashion, and digital content increasingly gained recognition as export and employment drivers.
Security As An Economic Signal
The most sensitive test of investor confidence came in late December. On December 25, US forces conducted targeted airstrikes against Islamic State-linked camps in Sokoto State in coordination with Nigerian authorities.
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The government moved quickly to frame the action as part of a stability agenda. In a statement, Wale Edun stressed that security and economic stability are inseparable, describing the operation as precise, intelligence-led, and focused on terrorist threats to lives and economic activity.
That framing captured the essence of Nigeria’s 2025 reform story. Security was presented not as an isolated military issue but as an economic input. A prerequisite for investment, production, and growth.
Looking into 2026
Nigeria enters 2026 with risks still present but with clearer direction. The proposed ₦58.18 trillion federal budget reflects an effort to consolidate gains rather than reset strategy. For investors, the signal from 2025 is not perfection, but coherence. Policy, security, and markets are increasingly aligned.
For an economy long defined by stops and starts, that alignment may prove the most valuable reform of all
David Okon is a marketing communications and policy consultant at Quadrant MSL, a part of
the Publicis Groupe and Troyka+Insight Redefini Group.
