Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 4.49% in 2026, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), building on positive momentum from reforms in 2025.
This projection is contained in the CBN’s Microeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026 released earlier today, with the theme “Consolidating Microeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty”.
In his note in the report, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said, “Global economic conditions are projected to remain broadly stable in 2026. The International Monetary Fund forecasts global output growth of 3.10 per cent, with variations across advanced and emerging market economies.”
He said the domestic economy is projected to expand by 4.49 per cent in 2026, from an estimated 3.89 per cent in 2025. The outlook reflects expectations of continued expansion in key non-oil sectors, improved crude oil production, and sustained stability in the macroeconomic environment.
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Data from early 2025 showed real GDP expanding 4.23% in the second quarter, driven by gains in both oil and non‑oil sectors, with oil output rising substantially and non‑oil activities such as ICT and crop production contributing to growth.
In 2025, headline inflation began to moderate from highs above 30%, helped by exchange rate stability and tighter monetary policy, with expectations that inflation would continue easing through the year.
Fiscal discipline also improved in 2025 as the federal deficit narrowed and tax reform measures began broadening revenue sources, strengthening Nigeria’s fiscal position. External reserves remained robust through most of 2025, providing a cushion for import cover and foreign currency stability.
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According to the report, Nigeria’s external sector showed improvements in 2025 that strengthened prospects for 2026.
Cardoso said Fiscal conditions are expected to strengthen, driven by the deeper implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021 and the broad-based tax reforms, expenditure rationalisation, and improved public financial management.
Exports, both oil and non‑oil, posted gains early in the year, supporting improved foreign exchange inflows and reserve levels.
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In 2025, external reserves stayed robust, covering over eight months of imports despite volatility.
Growing exports and a more stable exchange rate have helped widen trade surpluses and encourage foreign investor interest, contributing to a healthier external position ahead of expected growth in 2026.
He said, “In 2026, the Bank would sustain its commitment to balancing the objectives of price stability and supporting output growth.”
Sunday Michael Ogwu is a Nigerian journalist and editor of Pinnacle Daily. He is known for his work in business and economic reporting. He has held editorial roles in prominent Nigerian media outlets, where he has focused on economic policy, financial markets, and developmental issues affecting Nigeria and Africa more broadly.
