How Nigeria’s latest inflation figures expose a painful gap between the economic numbers and what families pay at the market

 

 

 

For a Nigerian household walking into a market this week, one question may matter more than the latest inflation headline.

If inflation is falling, why is the food bill still rising?

The answer is buried in Nigeria’s latest Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, August 17, 2026.

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 15.43 per cent in July, down from 15.91 per cent in June.

On the surface, that looks like good news.

But food inflation tells a very different story.

According to the NBS, food inflation climbed to 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July, from 17.52 per cent in June. More strikingly, food inflation accelerated to 5.56 per cent month-on-month, compared with 3.75 per cent in June.

In simple terms, the overall rate of price increases slowed, but food prices accelerated.

And that is where the relief promised by the headline inflation figure collides with the reality inside Nigerian kitchens.

NBS July 2026 CPI: National Bureau of Statistics — CPI/Microdata Catalogue

The five foods Nigerians are still struggling to escape

The July NBS report identified a range of food products contributing to the renewed pressure on food prices.

For this report, five everyday staples stand out because they are closely connected to the food Nigerians prepare and consume every day:

Rice. Fresh tomatoes. Garri. Beef. Eggs.

The significance is not simply that these foods are expensive.

It is that their continued price pressure comes at a time when Nigerians are being told that inflation is moderating.

Food item	July NBS picture	Why consumers feel the pressure
Rice	Identified among food items under price pressure	Major household staple
Fresh tomatoes	Identified among items contributing to food-price pressure	Essential ingredient in stews and sauces
Garri	Identified among food items under price pressure	Traditional low-cost staple
Beef	Identified among food items under price pressure	Important protein source
Eggs	Identified among food items under price pressure	Relatively accessible protein alternative

The NBS report identifies these commodities as part of the food-price pressures reflected in July’s food inflation figures. The data should not, however, be misrepresented as meaning that every one of these items recorded the same percentage increase or that their prices remained exactly unchanged.

NBS Selected Food Price Watch: View the NBS Food Price Watch data

1. Rice: The staple that has not given households much relief

Rice has become one of the clearest indicators of the pressure on Nigerian food budgets.

For many families, rice is no longer reserved for weekends, celebrations or special occasions. It has become a regular part of the household diet.

That makes any sustained increase in its price significant.

The problem is compounded by the fact that falling inflation does not automatically mean falling rice prices.

A reduction in the inflation rate means prices are increasing more slowly. It does not mean that the price level has returned to where it was before.

So a family may hear that inflation has fallen to 15.43 per cent and still discover that the same amount of money buys less rice than it did previously.

2. Fresh tomatoes: The small ingredient that can blow up the food budget

Fresh tomatoes may appear insignificant compared with the price of a bag of rice, but their impact on household spending is much larger than their size suggests.

Tomatoes are central to the preparation of many Nigerian meals.

When prices rise, households face three choices: spend more, buy less or substitute.

That is particularly difficult when fresh tomatoes are rising alongside pepper, onions and other ingredients needed to prepare the same meal.

The result is that a household can experience a much larger increase in the cost of cooking than any single food-price statistic suggests.

3. Garri: When the cheapest option starts losing its advantage

For decades, garri has served as one of Nigeria’s most accessible fallback foods.

It has helped households survive periods when more expensive staples became unaffordable.

That is precisely why its continued price pressure is worrying.

When a food traditionally regarded as a cheaper alternative also becomes more expensive, families have fewer options for reducing their food expenditure.

For low-income households, that can translate into smaller portions, fewer meals or a shift towards less nutritious alternatives.

The importance of garri is therefore not simply its price.

It is the loss of affordability that its price increase represents.

4. Beef: The protein Nigerians increasingly have to ration

The story of beef is different but equally revealing.

When meat prices rise, many households do not stop buying meat entirely.

Instead, they buy less.

One family that previously bought enough beef for every member may begin cutting each piece in half. Another may buy meat only on weekends. Others substitute beef with eggs, fish or cheaper protein sources.

But when those alternatives are also under pressure, the household’s ability to adjust becomes increasingly limited.

That makes food inflation a nutritional issue as much as an economic one.

5. Eggs: The affordable protein option is under pressure too.

Eggs have become particularly important in households trying to maintain protein intake without paying the cost of larger quantities of meat.

But if eggs continue to become more expensive, one of the major household coping mechanisms begins to disappear.

The impact is particularly serious for families already spending a large proportion of their income on food.

The issue is therefore bigger than the price of one crate of eggs.

It is about how much protein a household can still afford.

The number that changes the story: 5.56%

The headline inflation rate tells only part of the story.

In July, overall month-on-month inflation was 1.57 per cent, down from 1.66 per cent in June.

But food inflation moved sharply in the opposite direction.

It jumped from 3.75 per cent in June to 5.56 per cent in July.

Measure	June 2026	July 2026	Direction
Headline inflation, YoY	15.91%	15.43%	Down
Headline inflation, MoM	1.66%	1.57%	Down
Food inflation, YoY	17.52%	20.31%	Up
Food inflation, MoM	3.75%	5.56%	Up sharply

Source: NBS July 2026 CPI.

Nigeria does not have one food-inflation story.

Perhaps the most revealing part of the July figures is what is happening at the state level.

The national food inflation rate was 20.31 per cent, but some states recorded substantially higher rates.

Adamawa recorded the highest food inflation in Nigeria at 51.36 per cent year-on-year.

Katsina followed at 30.84 per cent, while Zamfara recorded 30.65 per cent.

That means Adamawa’s food inflation was more than twice the national rate.

Rank	State	July 2026 food inflation, YoY
1	Adamawa	51.36%
2	Katsina	30.84%
3	Zamfara	30.65%
—	Nigeria	20.31%

Adamawa’s position becomes even more striking when the monthly figure is considered.

The state recorded 17.02 per cent month-on-month food inflation in July, the highest in the country.

Lagos was second at 13.48 per cent, while Borno recorded 13.26 per cent.

That means the food-price shock was not simply a year-on-year statistical effect.

Food prices accelerated sharply within July itself.

Then there is Borno.

At the opposite end of the scale is Borno.

The state recorded -0.31 per cent year-on-year food inflation, meaning average food prices were marginally lower than they were in July 2025.

Nasarawa recorded 6.88 per cent, while Kebbi recorded 12.50 per cent.

Even more interestingly, some states recorded actual month-on-month declines in food prices.

Jigawa: -3.68 per cent

Kebbi: -3.67 per cent

Bauchi: -1.85 per cent

This produces one of the strongest findings in the July CPI:

Nigeria’s food-price crisis is not moving at one speed.

A family in Adamawa is facing a dramatically different food-price environment from a family in Borno, Jigawa or Kebbi.

Why is food inflation behaving differently?

The answer is partly structural.

Food prices are affected by factors that do not always move in the same direction as the broader inflation rate.

Farm inputs, transportation, storage, weather, insecurity, market access and supply-chain disruptions can all push food prices higher.

And fresh produce is particularly vulnerable because it cannot always be stored for long periods.

Recent analysis by SBM Intelligence also found continued pressure on the cost of preparing a standard pot of jollof rice, with its national index rising from ₦25,798 in July 2025 to ₦29,578 in June 2026, a 14.6 per cent increase. The survey covered rice, vegetable oil, meat, tomatoes, pepper, onions and other ingredients across 13 markets.

That evidence adds an important consumer dimension to the NBS inflation data.

The inflation statistics are not occurring in isolation.

They are showing up at the cost of an actual meal.

What is happening to the Nigerian household?

When food prices rise, households rarely respond by simply spending more without changing anything.

They adjust. They buy smaller quantities.

They reduce the amount of meat in a pot.

They substitute fresh produce.

They reduce how often they prepare certain meals.

They postpone purchases.

And in some cases, they cut the number or nutritional quality of meals.

That is why food inflation can be more damaging than a headline inflation number suggests.

A 0.48 percentage-point fall in headline inflation does not necessarily mean a family has ₦500 or ₦1,000 more available for food.

The family may still be spending more because the prices of the things it actually buys remain high.

The economic misunderstanding Nigerians should know

There is a crucial difference between inflation falling and prices falling.

Suppose a loaf of bread costs ₦2,000 today after rising rapidly from ₦1,000.

If inflation slows, the price may still remain around ₦2,000.

What has changed is the speed at which prices are increasing.

That is what Nigeria’s July numbers show.

The economy is experiencing some moderation in inflation, but that has not translated into broad-based cheaper food.

The NBS itself notes that July’s annual inflation rates were lower than the corresponding rates a year earlier, while prices still increased during the month.

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A tale of two Nigerias

The state data makes the story even more compelling.

In Adamawa:

Food inflation: 51.36%

In Nigeria:

Food inflation: 20.31%

In Borno:

Food inflation: -0.31%

In other words, national averages can hide very different household realities.

For policymakers, this raises a difficult question: why are some states experiencing extraordinary food-price pressures while others are seeing food prices stabilise or even fall?

The answer could lie in differences in agricultural production, transportation routes, seasonal supply, security conditions, market access and the cost of moving food from farms to consumers.

And that is where this story goes beyond inflation.

It becomes a story about Nigeria’s food supply chain.

For Abuja residents, another layer exists.

The Federal Capital Territory is heavily dependent on food transported from surrounding states and other parts of the country.

That means disruptions on supply routes, higher transport costs or poor harvests elsewhere can quickly show up in Abuja markets.

This makes an on-the-ground Abuja market check particularly important.

The NBS figures provide the national and state picture.

The bigger question: When will Nigerians actually feel relief?

Nigeria’s latest inflation figures contain good news and bad news.

The good news is that headline inflation has continued to moderate.

The bad news is that food inflation has accelerated sharply.

And food is not an abstract economic category.

It is breakfast. It is lunch. It is dinner.

It is the rice in the cupboard, the tomatoes in the kitchen, the garri in the container, the meat in the pot and the eggs on the breakfast table.

That is why the most important test of Nigeria’s inflation progress may not be the next headline percentage.

It may be the next visit to the market.

Because until food prices begin to fall, not merely rise more slowly, many Nigerian households may continue to feel that inflation has gone down only on paper.

The data at a glance

Key July 2026 finding	Figure
National headline inflation	15.43%
National food inflation, YoY	20.31%
National food inflation, MoM	5.56%
Highest food inflation state	Adamawa — 51.36%
Second highest	Katsina — 30.84%
Third highest	Zamfara — 30.65%
Lowest annual food inflation	Borno — -0.31%
Highest monthly food inflation	Adamawa — 17.02%
Second highest monthly	Lagos — 13.48%
Third highest monthly	Borno — 13.26%
Largest monthly decline	Jigawa — -3.68%

Sources: NBS July 2026 CPI; NBS Food Price Watch. State-level figures were independently reported from the July NBS CPI.

Until Nigerians begin to spend less at the market not just hear lower numbers in inflation reports, the cost-of-living crisis will remain painfully real on the dinner table.