The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended Nigeria’s decisive monetary and fiscal reforms, acknowledging their positive impact on stabilising the economy, reducing inflation, and bolstering foreign exchange reserves.
At the launch of its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF revised Nigeria’s growth forecast upward, predicting a 3.9% growth in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
It noted that the new figures are supported by a rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP), improved financial conditions, and increased oil production.
The IMF also raised its 2024 growth projection to 4.1%, a 0.7 percentage point increase from previous estimates.
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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso further strengthened the optimistic outlook by projecting that Nigeria’s trade surplus would remain around 6% of GDP in the foreseeable future.
He said this is a reflection of a robust restructuring of the economy, a more competitive currency, and the growth of domestic production while reducing dependence on imports.
At the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report launch, Assistant Director Jason Wu highlighted the increased coordination between Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary authorities, resulting in improved policy frameworks. Wu noted that monetary policy actions, enhanced revenue collection, and greater transparency in foreign exchange reserves have significantly reduced inflation, which dropped from over 30% last year to approximately 23% this year.
Despite Nigeria’s strides, the IMF warned that sub-Saharan Africa remains vulnerable to external and domestic risks, citing potential capital flow cycles and the need for continued fiscal and monetary improvements.
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Meanwhile, IMF Research Chief Denis Igan confirmed that Nigeria’s medium-term outlook was buoyed by an appreciating exchange rate, stronger financial conditions, and a more supportive fiscal stance. Oil production growth, aided by improved security, was also a major contributing factor to the revised growth forecast.
As the IMF’s positive outlook unfolds, Cardoso emphasised that Nigeria’s proactive economic restructuring has built resilience against potential global shocks. The country is now positioned with a competitive currency, a positive trade balance, and an economy that encourages domestic production over imports.
He also expressed optimism about Nigeria’s increasing influence in global economic forums, underlining the country’s growing role in shaping the future of emerging economies.
The IMF’s optimistic assessment of Nigeria’s economy underscores the success of its recent reforms, setting the stage for continued growth and stability in the coming years.
Sunday Michael Ogwu is a Nigerian journalist and editor of Pinnacle Daily. He is known for his work in business and economic reporting. He has held editorial roles in prominent Nigerian media outlets, where he has focused on economic policy, financial markets, and developmental issues affecting Nigeria and Africa more broadly.
