Nigeria’s economic direction in April 2026 is being shaped by five major forces ranging from monetary policy shifts to global shocks, according to a new report by the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics LTD/GTE.
In its ‘Weekly Intelligent Business & Ethics Report’ seen by Pinnacle Daily, the group said these forces are driving both opportunities and risks across the economy.
At the centre is a major policy shift by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which cut its benchmark interest rate to 26.5 per cent after a long period of tightening.
The move is aimed at supporting growth while sustaining the sharp drop in inflation from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026.
The report also highlighted the strong performance of the Nigerian stock market, with the All-Share Index (ASI) rising to 202,023.10 points and delivering about 30 per cent returns so far this year.
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However, it warned that the rally is narrow, driven mainly by a few large companies such as MTN Nigeria and Guaranty Trust Holding Company, raising concerns about sustainability.
On the fiscal side, the report said Nigeria faces mounting pressure from its ₦68.3 trillion 2026 budget, which carries a deficit of ₦23.85 trillion.
This means the government plans to borrow about ₦70 for every ₦100 it earns, highlighting growing debt concerns.
Energy security is another key issue. Despite the “naira-for-crude” policy, the Dangote Refinery still depends heavily on imported crude, with plans to import 13.62 million barrels, about 71.7 per cent of its needs, for May 2026.
The report said this creates an “energy security paradox,” as the refinery imports crude while exporting refined products, raising concerns about whether commercial goals are outweighing national interest.
Externally, global shocks are adding pressure as the report noted that the Middle East crisis has pushed oil prices above $116 per barrel, boosting Nigeria’s revenue but also increasing inflation and costs across sectors.
It warned that this could lead to stagflation if high prices persist.
The naira has also come under pressure, trading between ₦1,400 and ₦1,420 per dollar in the parallel market, while rising costs are squeezing businesses, especially in energy-intensive sectors.
These five forces are reshaping Nigeria’s economic outlook, creating a mix of strong market performance, policy shifts and rising risks.
The report stressed that maintaining stability will require fiscal discipline, careful policy coordination and a stronger focus on ethical governance.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X
