The Federal Government’s three-year reform scorecard shows that more than half of the ₦20.4 trillion in incremental resources available to the government between June 2023 and December 2025 came from borrowing, raising questions about how much of the fiscal improvement was driven by reforms and how much depended on additional debt.
The disclosure is one of the clearest data points in the Federal Government’s “Nigeria’s Reform Scorecard: The Benefits, Costs and Harms Prevented,” presented by Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Prof. Taiwo Oyedele, on Wednesday.
Oyedele’s presentation shows that the ₦20.4 trillion comprised ₦11.9 trillion borrowing, ₦5.4 trillion subsidy savings and ₦3.1 trillion independent revenue.
This means borrowing accounted for 58 per cent, while subsidy savings accounted for 27 per cent and other revenue 15 per cent.
The scorecard attempts to measure the impact of the Tinubu administration’s removal of fuel subsidy, exchange-rate reforms and other fiscal measures against what the government estimates would have happened if the previous policies had continued.
Borrowing supplied the largest share
Between June 2023 and December 2025, subsidy reforms generated ₦15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation.
Of this, ₦5.4 trillion accrued to the Federal Government, while ₦10.4 trillion went to states and local governments.
The Federal Government also recorded ₦3.1 trillion in incremental independent revenue, mainly from remittances by government-owned entities.
However, it borrowed another ₦11.9 trillion. Together, these sources produced ₦20.4 trillion in incremental Federal Government resources.
The numbers reveal an important feature of the reform period, indicating that borrowing was the single largest source of the Federal Government’s incremental resources, accounting for 58 per cent, compared with 27 per cent from subsidy savings and 15 per cent from other revenue.
Oyedele said the borrowing would have been “far higher, and economically destabilising, without the fiscal space the reforms created.”
But the figures also show that the government’s improved fiscal space did not eliminate its dependence on borrowing during the period.
READ ALSO:
- CPPE Projects Stronger H2 Economy, Warns 2027 Politics Could Derail Recovery
- Power Reforms: Can Nigeria End Electricity Subsidies Without Hurting Consumers?
- Debt Pressure Deepens Despite Signs of Stability, NESG Warns
- Nigeria Bets on States, Private Capital for Next Growth Phase
Spending exceeded new resources by ₦10trn
The government said the ₦20.4 trillion did not sit idle, stating that it was used alongside about ₦10 trillion from the existing revenue base to finance incremental expenses of ₦30.64 trillion.
The three largest expenditure lines were wage adjustments, minimum wage increases and allowances for public servants at ₦9.39 trillion; external debt service at ₦9.37 trillion; and strategic infrastructure at ₦6.5 trillion.
The wage bill is particularly significant because it was larger than the Federal Government’s entire ₦5.4 trillion share of subsidy savings.
Oyedele said this demonstrated that the subsidy reform “was never introduced for revenue purposes,” but was aimed at addressing what he described as entrenched corruption in the fuel subsidy and foreign exchange systems.
However, the composition of spending also exposes one of the major costs of the reforms.
The government spent ₦9.37 trillion on external debt service made necessary by exchange-rate depreciation.
That means part of the fiscal resources created by the reforms was absorbed by the higher naira cost of servicing existing foreign debt.
FG claims reforms prevented bigger fiscal crisis
The scorecard’s strongest defence of the reforms rests on its counterfactual estimates — what the government believes would have happened without the policy changes.
According to the assessment, 27 states were unable to reliably pay salaries in May 2023.
That number is now zero, while the government estimates that at least 30 states would have faced the same problem by 2026 if the pre-reform trajectory had continued.
The official exchange-rate premium over the parallel market has also fallen from more than 60 per cent to below five per cent, compared with a government estimate that it could have exceeded 150 per cent without reform.
The government also said the ₦30 trillion legacy Ways and Means stock has been curtailed rather than allowed to double.
These figures form the basis of the administration’s argument that the immediate pain of reform prevented a deeper fiscal and monetary crisis.
Inflation, petrol prices remain weak points
The scorecard, however, acknowledges that the reforms have imposed significant costs on households.
The Monetary Policy Rate has increased from 18.5 per cent in May 2023 to 26.5 per cent, while petrol prices have risen from about ₦185 per litre to between ₦1,100 and ₦1,400.
Food inflation has also remained elevated, although the government said it fell from 24.82 per cent to 17.52 per cent by June 2026.
Headline inflation has declined to 15.91 per cent from 22.41 per cent at the May 2023 baseline.
The government nevertheless classified poverty and household welfare as “unfinished business”, rather than claiming victory on those fronts.
READ ALSO:
- CBN’s OMO Reset Signals New Liquidity Strategy Ahead of 2027
- Police Attack Pinnacle Daily Editor Sunday Michael in Abuja
- Ezekwesili, BudgIT Challenge Transparency of Nigeria-UK £746m Ports Deal
- SEC’s Crypto Push Tests Nigeria’s Ability to Formalise $92bn Market
Reserves, GDP show improvement
The scorecard points to stronger external buffers as another major outcome of the reforms.
Gross foreign reserves have risen to $52.5 billion from about $35 billion, while net reserves increased from roughly $3 billion to $34.8 billion.
The government also said Nigeria’s stock market capitalisation has risen from about ₦31 trillion to roughly ₦150 trillion.
Real GDP growth reached 3.89 per cent, compared with a May 2023 baseline of 2.31 per cent.
Nigeria also received an upgrade from S&P Global to a ‘B’ sovereign rating in May, which the government described as the country’s first upgrade in 14 years.
Key test remains household welfare
Pinnacle Daily analysis shows that the data presented by the minister therefore produces a more complicated reform picture than a simple success-or-failure assessment.
The reforms created ₦15.8 trillion in subsidy savings for the Federation and helped generate additional fiscal resources, but the Federal Government still relied on ₦11.9 trillion in incremental borrowing.
At the same time, it spent ₦30.64 trillion on additional expenditure, including ₦9.37 trillion in external debt service.
The government’s own scorecard accepts that macroeconomic improvements have not yet translated fully into household relief.
Oyedele said the next phase would focus on converting stability into tangible benefits through expanded cash transfers, agricultural interventions and improved spending.
“We will stay the course of reform, and accelerate how we translate the macro gains into meaningful impact for every household,” he said.
The data therefore leaves the administration with a harder test ahead, that is, whether the fiscal space, stronger reserves, lower inflation and improved growth can eventually deliver stronger household welfare without returning Nigeria to the debt, subsidy and foreign-exchange distortions the reforms were designed to address.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X