Nigeria’s banking sector is approaching a decisive moment with just 77 days to the March 31, 2026, recapitalisation deadline.
So far, about 22 licensed banks, approximately 65 per cent of the total, have confirmed full compliance with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) minimum capital requirements.
Tier-1 lenders make up the bulk of banks that have successfully completed the recapitalisation exercise, reflecting their stronger balance sheets and better access to capital.
In contrast, many Tier-2 banks remain under pressure, reinforcing concerns that the exercise could force the lendees to downgrade to the Tier-3 category or force strategic alliances among weaker lenders.
As far back as September 2025, Pinnacle Daily had flagged growing strain on mid-tier banks as the March 2026 deadline loomed.
At the time, Africa-focused research firm SB Morgen Intelligence warned that some banks would either need to significantly scale up operations or risk being absorbed through mergers.
Beyond the numbers, uncertainty continues to unsettle depositors and investors, particularly around banks under CBN intervention and the long-delayed proposed merger between Unity Bank and Providus Bank.
Industry watchers suggest Polaris Bank may be exploring investor-led recapitalisation or a merger with another Tier-2 lender, noting that consolidation often becomes the most viable path for banks with negative shareholders’ funds.
The prolonged silence around the Unity–Providus merger has only deepened market anxiety.
Earlier data released by the CBN on May 8, 2024, showed Nigeria had 36 licensed banks.
However, following the revocation of Heritage Bank’s licence on June 3, 2024, and the proposed Unity–Providus merger, the number of banks could shrink to about 34—highlighting how consolidation is already reshaping the sector.
Banks that have met full compliance
Among internationally licensed banks that have satisfied the recapitalisation requirements are Access Bank, Fidelity Bank, First Bank, Guarantee Trust Bank, United Bank for Africa, and Zenith Bank.
For nationally licensed banks, Citibank, Ecobank, Globus Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Sterling Bank, Wema Bank, and Premium Trust Bank have all reported full compliance.
In the regional, non-interest, and merchant banking segments, Providus Bank, Jaiz Bank, Taj Bank, Lotus Bank, FSDH Merchant Bank, Greenwich Merchant Bank, and Nova Merchant Bank have also shown full commitment to the exercise.
Banks scrambling to meet recapitalisation
Several banks are yet to publicly confirm full compliance, including Keystone Bank, Polaris Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Titan Trust Bank, Union Bank of Nigeria, Unity Bank, Optimus Bank, Parallex Bank, Suntrust Bank, Signature Bank, Alternative Bank, Coronation Merchant Bank, FBN Merchant Bank, Rand Merchant Bank, and First City Monument Bank.
Capital market rush
The CBN has disclosed that 27 banks have already accessed the capital market to raise funds, even as it continues to ratify the new capital bases of some institutions.
While not all approvals are final, regulators suggest many banks are close to clearing the hurdle, with others expected to follow in the coming weeks.
The mandate
In March 2024, the CBN gave banks a 24-month window—ending in March 2026—to shore up their capital bases.
Under the directive, commercial banks with international licences must raise their minimum capital to ₦500 billion, national banks to ₦200 billion, and regional and merchant banks to ₦50 billion, while non-interest banks with national and regional authorisations must raise ₦20 billion and ₦10 billion, respectively.
What experts are saying
Analysts believe that many of the banks yet to announce full compliance are engaged in ongoing investor discussions that could still yield positive outcomes.
Banks whose boards were dissolved or restructured by the CBN are also believed to be making gradual progress toward meeting the requirements.
“I think from the way things are going, a lot of the banks are still in line with their recapitalisation plan. Recall that when the directive was released in March 2024, they were directed to submit their recapitalisation plan.
“I think, based on most of them, they are actually aligned for those with that particular plan. I think the ones that might look a bit shaky are the banks under CBN ownership or CBN intervention,” Ayokunle Olubunmi, Head of Financial Institutions Rating at Agusto & Co, shares his view with Pinnacle Daily.
He noted that banks with national licences make up a significant portion of those yet to fully comply, adding that downgrading to regional status remains an option in a worst-case scenario.
“So that option is also open to them, right? But I believe that in the next couple of months, before the end of February, we’re going to hear more banks making announcements, because a lot of them are actually towards the tail end of their capital-raising activities,” Olubunmi said.
The industry needed to raise about ₦4.1 trillion to fully meet the new capital thresholds. So far, more than ₦3 trillion has already been raised—largely from within the Nigerian capital market.
“Now the banks have raised over ₦3 trillion. Except for GT banks and, of course, the international banks that are subsidiaries of international committees whose parent institutions injected capital, no other bank ventured out.
“All the funds were gotten in the economy. That shows you the amount of funds that we have in our domain. This shows the confidence that investors have in banks. The attractiveness of the banking industry to investors.
READ ALSO: 16 Banks Have Met CBN’s Recapitalisation – Cardoso
“Don’t forget that for any investors to drop serious money, they must have confidence in that business. Of course, one or two banks, like any other businesses, might have one or two issues that they are trying to manage and sort out, but for investors to pump over ₦3 trillion into an industry, into the various banks, that means that all of those banks cannot be basket cases,” Olubunmi added.
Other analysts who spoke with Pinnacle Daily stressed that investors’ confidence is being driven by fundamentals such as asset quality, loan books, profitability, and return-generating capacity.
They maintained that these factors have continued to support capital inflows into the sector.
However, they said, concerns persist over banks under CBN intervention and those whose management teams were replaced before the recapitalisation exercise began.
In January 2024, the apex bank dissolved the boards of Keystone Bank, Polaris Bank, and Union Bank.
The analysts are concerned about the delayed Unity–Providus merger, noting that it should have been concluded by now.
Based on publicly available financials, Unity Bank reportedly has negative shareholders’ equity of about ₦327 billion as of year-end 2024.
Despite years of seeking investors, the bank could not secure sufficient capital, leaving its future and the timeline for consolidation uncertain as the deadline draws closer.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X
