Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Rises in January but Misses OPEC Quota

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Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million barrels per day in January 2026, up by 37,000 bpd when compared to December 2025 production of 1.422 million bpd.

This is according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) February 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, February 11.

While the output reflects a continued rebound, especially when compared to November’s level of 1.420 million bpd, it, however, shows that Nigeria has failed to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the sixth month in a row (reflecting a deficit of roughly 41,000 bpd).

The last time the country exceeded the OPEC quota was in July 2025, when it recorded 1.507 million barrels per day of crude production.

The OPEC data is based on only oil production and not condensate output.

When compared with Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd, it reflects a significant deficit of nearly 400,000 bpd.

Nigeria Remains Africa’s Largest Oil Producer

Despite missing the OPEC quota, Nigeria remains the largest oil producer in Africa, as the January output figure puts it ahead of Libya, Algeria, and Congo.

According to the report, Nigeria’s performance placed it behind only Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.

Saudi Arabia, which is the largest producer in OPEC, increased its output from 10.084 million barrels per day in December to 10.1 million barrels per day in January, a 16,000-barrel increase. The UAE had a 10,000-bpd increase in production to 3.383 million bpd, while Iraq also saw a 16,000-bpd increase to 4.097 million bpd. Libya reported 1.378 million barrels per day, up 6,000 barrels per day.

The report also revealed that Algeria dropped output by 1,000 bpd to 971,000 bpd, while Congo reduced its output by 6,000 bpd to 275,000 bpd. Equatorial Guinea and Gabon remained the group’s smallest producers.

Overall, OPEC oil production fell sharply last month, with losses in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran, according to the group. The report also revealed that the 22 nations produced an average of 42.448 million barrels per day in January, about 439,000 lower than the previous month.

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Persistent Production Challenges

Nigeria’s inability to hit the 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota is generally attributed to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, security challenges in the Niger Delta and underinvestment in upstream infrastructure.

There have been sustained efforts by the authorities in recent years to stabilise crude production through enhanced pipeline surveillance, clampdown on oil theft and gradual reactivation of previously shut-in wells.

Speaking recently at an event, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, said the government has embarked on a series of reforms in the last two years, aimed at boosting activities in the nation’s oil and gas sector.

According to him, the efforts, including the “Project One Million Barrels” launched in October 2024, have led to an increase in production to between 1.7 and 1.83 million barrels per day in 2025, while the number of active oil rigs rose from 14 in 2023 to over 60 as of today. “These are signs that the reforms are working, that idle assets are being activated, and existing assets are being optimized,” the minister had stated.

While noting that the reforms have led to the return of international confidence, Lokpobiri called on investors to come and join in building the energy future not just for Nigeria but Africa as a whole.

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Victor EZEJA

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Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.