The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 per cent. The Fund cited improved macroeconomic conditions and ongoing reforms as key drivers.
According to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces”, Nigeria’s economy will grow steadily from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025 before accelerating in 2026. The new estimate is 0.2 percentage points higher than the October 2025 projection.
The Fund said Nigeria’s improvement mirrors growth across sub-Saharan Africa, projected at 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027. IMF officials attributed the gains to macroeconomic stabilisation and reforms in key economies.
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Globally, the IMF expects the world economy to expand by 3.3 per cent in 2026. Rising investments in technology and artificial intelligence (AI) are helping offset the negative effects of changing trade policies.
Energy prices remain critical for Nigeria’s outlook. The IMF projects energy commodity prices will drop by about 7 per cent in 2026 due to weaker global demand. However, coordinated OPEC+ production and China’s crude stockpiling provide a soft floor, limiting downside risks.
Despite the positive forecast, the IMF warned that risks remain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, renewed trade disputes, and high public debt could threaten growth.
Policy Guidance
The IMF urged Nigerian authorities to rebuild fiscal buffers and pursue structural reforms without delay. It also stressed the importance of central bank independence to maintain stability.
The Fund recommended that any fiscal support should be targeted and temporary, with clear sunset clauses. Nigeria’s ability to meet its 2026 growth target depends on consistent reform implementation and resilience to domestic and global shocks.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
