Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.434 million barrels per day (bpd) in August 2025, down by approximately 73,000 bpd from 1.507 million bpd in July.
This represents a decline of 4.84 per cent and marks the lowest production level in six months.
The August production figure fell below Nigeria’s allocation of 1.5 million bpd by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), ending a two-month period (June and July) where the country had met and slightly exceeded its quota.
Nigeria’s crude oil output has fluctuated in the past months of this year. In January, the country recorded 1.54 million bpd, exceeding the OPEC quota. It, however, dropped to 1.46 million bpd in February, plunged further to 1.40 million bpd in March and rose slightly to 1.48 million bpd in April (but still below OPEC quota). It fell again to 1.45 million bpd in May, but rose to 1.505 million bpd in June and further firmed up to 1.507 million bpd in July.
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The output drop, which comes amid celebration of the recent increase in production level, highlights the persistence of crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and technical issues at some oil terminals in the Niger Delta region, which continue to disrupt operations.
There are concerns that the drop in crude output could undermine Nigeria’s revenue projections, especially as the federal government is banking on higher oil earnings to support its 2025 budget.
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The budget was based on a production target of 2.06 million bpd (including condensates) and a price benchmark of $75 per barrel. Between January and July 2025, Nigeria’s oil production fell short by 82.46 million barrels (18.88 per cent deficit) compared to budgetary expectations, potentially creating a significant fiscal deficit.
Despite the production drop, Nigeria retains its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, surpassing Algeria (937,000 bpd in July) and Libya.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.
