Oil prices rebounded on Monday, climbing more than $1 after last week’s losses, as OPEC+ announced a modest production increase amid concerns over potential new sanctions on Russian crude.
The group, which includes OPEC members plus Russia and allies, plans to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day from October, a figure far below earlier increases of 555,000 bpd in September and 411,000 bpd in July. Analysts say the modest hike will have a limited impact, as some members have already been overproducing.
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Brent crude rose $1.45, or 2.2%, to $66.95 a barrel by 1200 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased $1.36, or 2.2%, to $63.23 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell over 2% on Friday after a weak U.S. jobs report and lost more than 3% last week.
“The market had run ahead of itself regarding this OPEC+ increase. Today we see a classic sell-the-rumour, buy-the-fact reaction,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Expectations of a tighter supply from potential U.S. sanctions on Russia also supported prices. President Donald Trump indicated readiness to implement a second phase of sanctions on Russian oil buyers, which could disrupt crude flows. Frederic Lasserre, Gunvor’s global head of research, said such measures would affect global crude distribution.
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The geopolitical backdrop includes Russia’s recent major air attack on Kyiv, which killed at least four people and set the main government building on fire, further fueling uncertainty in energy markets.
Despite these factors, Goldman Sachs forecasts a slightly larger oil surplus in 2026, as supply growth in the Americas offsets reduced Russian output. The bank left its 2025 Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged and projected 2026 averages at $56/$52 per barrel.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
